**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and IRGC naval interventions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring market-implied odds heavily toward the 0-20 ships bin at 58.5%.** As of early August 2026, the strait remains effectively closed to routine shipping following July escalations, including IRGC warnings, vessel interceptions with warning shots, and U.S. Central Command efforts to enforce compliance and redirect traffic. Daily transits have fallen to a trickle—often just a handful of vessels—far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100–140 ships per day. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting around the chokepoint, and persistent threats of further disruption reinforce low volume expectations through the end of the month. The 26.5% probability on 20–40 ships and smaller tails on higher bins reflect limited scope for near-term de-escalation or partial reopenings, though any credible diplomatic breakthrough or sustained naval stabilization could quickly shift implied probabilities. Traders are pricing in the current geopolitical standoff and its direct impact on maritime flows rather than historical norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 59%
20-40 27%
40-60 13%
60-80 3.6%
$38,281 Vol.
$38,281 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
59%
20-40
27%
40-60
13%
60-80
4%
80+
1%
0-20 59%
20-40 27%
40-60 13%
60-80 3.6%
$38,281 Vol.
$38,281 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$16,961 Vol.
59%
20-40
$5,683 Vol.
27%
40-60
$6,785 Vol.
13%
60-80
$4,892 Vol.
4%
80+
$3,961 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and IRGC naval interventions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring market-implied odds heavily toward the 0-20 ships bin at 58.5%.**
As of early August 2026, the strait remains effectively closed to routine shipping following July escalations, including IRGC warnings, vessel interceptions with warning shots, and U.S. Central Command efforts to enforce compliance and redirect traffic. Daily transits have fallen to a trickle—often just a handful of vessels—far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100–140 ships per day. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting around the chokepoint, and persistent threats of further disruption reinforce low volume expectations through the end of the month.
The 26.5% probability on 20–40 ships and smaller tails on higher bins reflect limited scope for near-term de-escalation or partial reopenings, though any credible diplomatic breakthrough or sustained naval stabilization could quickly shift implied probabilities. Traders are pricing in the current geopolitical standoff and its direct impact on maritime flows rather than historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$38,281End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and IRGC naval interventions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring market-implied odds heavily toward the 0-20 ships bin at 58.5%.**
As of early August 2026, the strait remains effectively closed to routine shipping following July escalations, including IRGC warnings, vessel interceptions with warning shots, and U.S. Central Command efforts to enforce compliance and redirect traffic. Daily transits have fallen to a trickle—often just a handful of vessels—far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100–140 ships per day. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting around the chokepoint, and persistent threats of further disruption reinforce low volume expectations through the end of the month.
The 26.5% probability on 20–40 ships and smaller tails on higher bins reflect limited scope for near-term de-escalation or partial reopenings, though any credible diplomatic breakthrough or sustained naval stabilization could quickly shift implied probabilities. Traders are pricing in the current geopolitical standoff and its direct impact on maritime flows rather than historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$38,281End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and IRGC naval interventions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring market-implied odds heavily toward the 0-20 ships bin at 58.5%.** As of early August 2026, the strait remains effectively closed to routine shipping following July escalations, including IRGC warnings, vessel interceptions with warning shots, and U.S. Central Command efforts to enforce compliance and redirect traffic. Daily transits have fallen to a trickle—often just a handful of vessels—far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100–140 ships per day. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, rerouting around the chokepoint, and persistent threats of further disruption reinforce low volume expectations through the end of the month. The 26.5% probability on 20–40 ships and smaller tails on higher bins reflect limited scope for near-term de-escalation or partial reopenings, though any credible diplomatic breakthrough or sustained naval stabilization could quickly shift implied probabilities. Traders are pricing in the current geopolitical standoff and its direct impact on maritime flows rather than historical norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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