Trump's position as incumbent president through late September 2026 rests on the absence of active removal mechanisms, including impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or voluntary resignation. With roughly two weeks remaining until the market's resolution date, no congressional votes, special counsel actions, or health-related incapacity announcements have altered the timeline. Historical patterns show presidential removals outside elections require extended legislative or institutional processes that exceed this narrow window. Trader consensus at 99.1% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the lack of recent catalysts. Even so, unforeseen events such as acute medical developments or rapid bipartisan agreement on extraordinary measures could theoretically shift outcomes before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$794,910 Vol.
$794,910 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
$794,910 Vol.
$794,910 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's position as incumbent president through late September 2026 rests on the absence of active removal mechanisms, including impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or voluntary resignation. With roughly two weeks remaining until the market's resolution date, no congressional votes, special counsel actions, or health-related incapacity announcements have altered the timeline. Historical patterns show presidential removals outside elections require extended legislative or institutional processes that exceed this narrow window. Trader consensus at 99.1% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the lack of recent catalysts. Even so, unforeseen events such as acute medical developments or rapid bipartisan agreement on extraordinary measures could theoretically shift outcomes before September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$794,910End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's position as incumbent president through late September 2026 rests on the absence of active removal mechanisms, including impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or voluntary resignation. With roughly two weeks remaining until the market's resolution date, no congressional votes, special counsel actions, or health-related incapacity announcements have altered the timeline. Historical patterns show presidential removals outside elections require extended legislative or institutional processes that exceed this narrow window. Trader consensus at 99.1% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the lack of recent catalysts. Even so, unforeseen events such as acute medical developments or rapid bipartisan agreement on extraordinary measures could theoretically shift outcomes before September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,910End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's position as incumbent president through late September 2026 rests on the absence of active removal mechanisms, including impeachment proceedings, cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment, or voluntary resignation. With roughly two weeks remaining until the market's resolution date, no congressional votes, special counsel actions, or health-related incapacity announcements have altered the timeline. Historical patterns show presidential removals outside elections require extended legislative or institutional processes that exceed this narrow window. Trader consensus at 99.1% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the lack of recent catalysts. Even so, unforeseen events such as acute medical developments or rapid bipartisan agreement on extraordinary measures could theoretically shift outcomes before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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