Escalating US-Iran military tensions in 2026 have elevated risks around control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, alongside strategic sites like Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi near the Strait of Hormuz. US airstrikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg without damaging export infrastructure, followed by renewed strikes, a naval blockade, and repeated threats of seizure or occupation to pressure reopening of the strait, which carries about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. These developments have driven sharp volatility in Brent and WTI crude prices, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and heightened market focus on any shift in Iranian sovereignty that could choke exports or disrupt energy flows. Ongoing ceasefire talks and potential further escalations through year-end remain key swing factors for trader positioning on the implied probability of a control change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$64,717 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
2%
September 30
4%
$64,717 Vol.
August 31
$23,109 Vol.
2%
September 30
$41,608 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military tensions in 2026 have elevated risks around control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, alongside strategic sites like Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi near the Strait of Hormuz. US airstrikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg without damaging export infrastructure, followed by renewed strikes, a naval blockade, and repeated threats of seizure or occupation to pressure reopening of the strait, which carries about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. These developments have driven sharp volatility in Brent and WTI crude prices, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and heightened market focus on any shift in Iranian sovereignty that could choke exports or disrupt energy flows. Ongoing ceasefire talks and potential further escalations through year-end remain key swing factors for trader positioning on the implied probability of a control change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$64,717End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military tensions in 2026 have elevated risks around control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, alongside strategic sites like Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi near the Strait of Hormuz. US airstrikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg without damaging export infrastructure, followed by renewed strikes, a naval blockade, and repeated threats of seizure or occupation to pressure reopening of the strait, which carries about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. These developments have driven sharp volatility in Brent and WTI crude prices, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and heightened market focus on any shift in Iranian sovereignty that could choke exports or disrupt energy flows. Ongoing ceasefire talks and potential further escalations through year-end remain key swing factors for trader positioning on the implied probability of a control change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,717End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran military tensions in 2026 have elevated risks around control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, alongside strategic sites like Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi near the Strait of Hormuz. US airstrikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg without damaging export infrastructure, followed by renewed strikes, a naval blockade, and repeated threats of seizure or occupation to pressure reopening of the strait, which carries about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. These developments have driven sharp volatility in Brent and WTI crude prices, elevated tanker insurance premiums, and heightened market focus on any shift in Iranian sovereignty that could choke exports or disrupt energy flows. Ongoing ceasefire talks and potential further escalations through year-end remain key swing factors for trader positioning on the implied probability of a control change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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