US military operations in the Persian Gulf since February 2026 have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) coastal defenses, missile sites, and maritime facilities to limit Tehran's ability to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes on nearby islands and ports, including Kharg and Qeshm, have degraded some IRGC logistics and surveillance, while Iran continues to assert authority over its territorial waters and small outposts such as Farsi Island. Farsi has served as an IRGC naval base for decades, supporting asymmetric tactics in the northern Gulf. Ongoing negotiations, intermittent ceasefires, and Houthi-related escalations create uncertainty about further direct action against Iranian-held islands. Any shift in control would likely require sustained amphibious or air operations amid active diplomatic efforts to manage escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$167,602 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$167,602 Vol.
August 31
$158,710 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations in the Persian Gulf since February 2026 have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) coastal defenses, missile sites, and maritime facilities to limit Tehran's ability to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes on nearby islands and ports, including Kharg and Qeshm, have degraded some IRGC logistics and surveillance, while Iran continues to assert authority over its territorial waters and small outposts such as Farsi Island. Farsi has served as an IRGC naval base for decades, supporting asymmetric tactics in the northern Gulf. Ongoing negotiations, intermittent ceasefires, and Houthi-related escalations create uncertainty about further direct action against Iranian-held islands. Any shift in control would likely require sustained amphibious or air operations amid active diplomatic efforts to manage escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$167,602End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations in the Persian Gulf since February 2026 have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) coastal defenses, missile sites, and maritime facilities to limit Tehran's ability to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes on nearby islands and ports, including Kharg and Qeshm, have degraded some IRGC logistics and surveillance, while Iran continues to assert authority over its territorial waters and small outposts such as Farsi Island. Farsi has served as an IRGC naval base for decades, supporting asymmetric tactics in the northern Gulf. Ongoing negotiations, intermittent ceasefires, and Houthi-related escalations create uncertainty about further direct action against Iranian-held islands. Any shift in control would likely require sustained amphibious or air operations amid active diplomatic efforts to manage escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$167,602End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations in the Persian Gulf since February 2026 have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) coastal defenses, missile sites, and maritime facilities to limit Tehran's ability to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes on nearby islands and ports, including Kharg and Qeshm, have degraded some IRGC logistics and surveillance, while Iran continues to assert authority over its territorial waters and small outposts such as Farsi Island. Farsi has served as an IRGC naval base for decades, supporting asymmetric tactics in the northern Gulf. Ongoing negotiations, intermittent ceasefires, and Houthi-related escalations create uncertainty about further direct action against Iranian-held islands. Any shift in control would likely require sustained amphibious or air operations amid active diplomatic efforts to manage escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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