Elevated inflation, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year still well above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a divided July FOMC vote that left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, forms the core driver behind Polymarket’s 58.5% odds for no change and 29.5% for a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and supply-side pressures including energy prices have shifted trader focus from prior easing expectations toward potential policy tightening, consistent with forward guidance and recent analyst revisions projecting a December hike. The upcoming August 12 CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence the market-implied path for year-end rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 8.9%
50+ bps increase 1.3%
$84,846 Vol.
$84,846 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 8.9%
50+ bps increase 1.3%
$84,846 Vol.
$84,846 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$12,357 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$25,968 Vol.
9%
No change
$18,855 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$13,485 Vol.
30%
50+ bps increase
$14,181 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year still well above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a divided July FOMC vote that left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, forms the core driver behind Polymarket’s 58.5% odds for no change and 29.5% for a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and supply-side pressures including energy prices have shifted trader focus from prior easing expectations toward potential policy tightening, consistent with forward guidance and recent analyst revisions projecting a December hike. The upcoming August 12 CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence the market-implied path for year-end rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$84,846End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year still well above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a divided July FOMC vote that left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, forms the core driver behind Polymarket’s 58.5% odds for no change and 29.5% for a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and supply-side pressures including energy prices have shifted trader focus from prior easing expectations toward potential policy tightening, consistent with forward guidance and recent analyst revisions projecting a December hike. The upcoming August 12 CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence the market-implied path for year-end rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$84,846End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, with the June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year still well above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a divided July FOMC vote that left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, forms the core driver behind Polymarket’s 58.5% odds for no change and 29.5% for a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and supply-side pressures including energy prices have shifted trader focus from prior easing expectations toward potential policy tightening, consistent with forward guidance and recent analyst revisions projecting a December hike. The upcoming August 12 CPI release and September FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further influence the market-implied path for year-end rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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