Elevated inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, represent the primary drivers anchoring trader sentiment for the October 27-28 FOMC decision. Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, down from May peaks, yet energy price volatility from earlier Middle East tensions and the July FOMC’s 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a hike—have kept market-implied odds for no change at 67.5% while assigning a 24% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Forward-looking signals, including the June dot plot’s upward revision to year-end 2026 rate expectations and upcoming July CPI release on August 12, reinforce caution among traders, who view the September meeting as a key interim catalyst that could shift the path to October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$543,952 Vol.
$543,952 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$543,952 Vol.
$543,952 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$118,891 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$145,934 Vol.
7%
No change
$110,726 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$124,946 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$43,454 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, represent the primary drivers anchoring trader sentiment for the October 27-28 FOMC decision. Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, down from May peaks, yet energy price volatility from earlier Middle East tensions and the July FOMC’s 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a hike—have kept market-implied odds for no change at 67.5% while assigning a 24% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Forward-looking signals, including the June dot plot’s upward revision to year-end 2026 rate expectations and upcoming July CPI release on August 12, reinforce caution among traders, who view the September meeting as a key interim catalyst that could shift the path to October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$543,952End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, represent the primary drivers anchoring trader sentiment for the October 27-28 FOMC decision. Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, down from May peaks, yet energy price volatility from earlier Middle East tensions and the July FOMC’s 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a hike—have kept market-implied odds for no change at 67.5% while assigning a 24% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Forward-looking signals, including the June dot plot’s upward revision to year-end 2026 rate expectations and upcoming July CPI release on August 12, reinforce caution among traders, who view the September meeting as a key interim catalyst that could shift the path to October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$543,952End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, represent the primary drivers anchoring trader sentiment for the October 27-28 FOMC decision. Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, down from May peaks, yet energy price volatility from earlier Middle East tensions and the July FOMC’s 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a hike—have kept market-implied odds for no change at 67.5% while assigning a 24% probability to a 25 basis point increase. Forward-looking signals, including the June dot plot’s upward revision to year-end 2026 rate expectations and upcoming July CPI release on August 12, reinforce caution among traders, who view the September meeting as a key interim catalyst that could shift the path to October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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