Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for five years, reinforced by August CPI prints exceeding expectations and oil prices above $100 per barrel, has driven market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike to 95.5% for “Yes.” The FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting—the first since 2023—with additional tightening priced in for December amid slower disinflation and second-round effects. Treasury yields near 5% on the 10-year and CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 90% reflect trader consensus backed by real capital. While a sharp growth slowdown could alter the path, current data and forward guidance make a 2026 hike the baseline expectation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
96% chance
$9,749,834 Vol.
$9,749,834 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
96% chance
$9,749,834 Vol.
$9,749,834 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for five years, reinforced by August CPI prints exceeding expectations and oil prices above $100 per barrel, has driven market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike to 95.5% for “Yes.” The FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting—the first since 2023—with additional tightening priced in for December amid slower disinflation and second-round effects. Treasury yields near 5% on the 10-year and CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 90% reflect trader consensus backed by real capital. While a sharp growth slowdown could alter the path, current data and forward guidance make a 2026 hike the baseline expectation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,749,834End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for five years, reinforced by August CPI prints exceeding expectations and oil prices above $100 per barrel, has driven market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike to 95.5% for “Yes.” The FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting—the first since 2023—with additional tightening priced in for December amid slower disinflation and second-round effects. Treasury yields near 5% on the 10-year and CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 90% reflect trader consensus backed by real capital. While a sharp growth slowdown could alter the path, current data and forward guidance make a 2026 hike the baseline expectation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,749,834End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for five years, reinforced by August CPI prints exceeding expectations and oil prices above $100 per barrel, has driven market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike to 95.5% for “Yes.” The FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting—the first since 2023—with additional tightening priced in for December amid slower disinflation and second-round effects. Treasury yields near 5% on the 10-year and CME FedWatch probabilities exceeding 90% reflect trader consensus backed by real capital. While a sharp growth slowdown could alter the path, current data and forward guidance make a 2026 hike the baseline expectation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions