Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, benefiting from strong primary performance, substantial fundraising, and the state’s consistent Republican tilt in recent statewide contests. Traders price in her high probability due to these structural advantages and limited Democratic success in Senate races since 2012. Angie Nixon’s primary upset over a better-funded opponent introduced uncertainty, yet her platform and the partisan environment have kept her support contained. A shift in the race would likely require major changes in turnout patterns among key demographics or unforeseen national developments in the final weeks before the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida Senate Election Winner
Florida Senate Election Winner
$113,582 Vol.
$113,582 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$113,582 Vol.
$113,582 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$56,970 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$56,612 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, benefiting from strong primary performance, substantial fundraising, and the state’s consistent Republican tilt in recent statewide contests. Traders price in her high probability due to these structural advantages and limited Democratic success in Senate races since 2012. Angie Nixon’s primary upset over a better-funded opponent introduced uncertainty, yet her platform and the partisan environment have kept her support contained. A shift in the race would likely require major changes in turnout patterns among key demographics or unforeseen national developments in the final weeks before the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$113,582Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, benefiting from strong primary performance, substantial fundraising, and the state’s consistent Republican tilt in recent statewide contests. Traders price in her high probability due to these structural advantages and limited Democratic success in Senate races since 2012. Angie Nixon’s primary upset over a better-funded opponent introduced uncertainty, yet her platform and the partisan environment have kept her support contained. A shift in the race would likely require major changes in turnout patterns among key demographics or unforeseen national developments in the final weeks before the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$113,582Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed to complete Marco Rubio’s term, benefiting from strong primary performance, substantial fundraising, and the state’s consistent Republican tilt in recent statewide contests. Traders price in her high probability due to these structural advantages and limited Democratic success in Senate races since 2012. Angie Nixon’s primary upset over a better-funded opponent introduced uncertainty, yet her platform and the partisan environment have kept her support contained. A shift in the race would likely require major changes in turnout patterns among key demographics or unforeseen national developments in the final weeks before the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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