US strikes targeted military installations on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during July 2026 amid broader escalation between Washington, Tehran, and Israeli forces in the ongoing Iran conflict. The island, administered by Iran with historical territorial claims noted by the UAE, sustained limited damage to IRGC missile and air defense systems, resulting in reported injuries but no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026 deadlines, reflecting the strikes' focused scope rather than ground operations or sustained campaigns. Further diplomatic pauses, additional targeted actions, or de-escalation signals before month-end could influence outcomes, while historical patterns of proxy or limited engagements in the region have rarely produced rapid territorial transfers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$118,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
2%
$118,513 Vol.
August 31
$90,965 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes targeted military installations on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during July 2026 amid broader escalation between Washington, Tehran, and Israeli forces in the ongoing Iran conflict. The island, administered by Iran with historical territorial claims noted by the UAE, sustained limited damage to IRGC missile and air defense systems, resulting in reported injuries but no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026 deadlines, reflecting the strikes' focused scope rather than ground operations or sustained campaigns. Further diplomatic pauses, additional targeted actions, or de-escalation signals before month-end could influence outcomes, while historical patterns of proxy or limited engagements in the region have rarely produced rapid territorial transfers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$118,513End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes targeted military installations on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during July 2026 amid broader escalation between Washington, Tehran, and Israeli forces in the ongoing Iran conflict. The island, administered by Iran with historical territorial claims noted by the UAE, sustained limited damage to IRGC missile and air defense systems, resulting in reported injuries but no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026 deadlines, reflecting the strikes' focused scope rather than ground operations or sustained campaigns. Further diplomatic pauses, additional targeted actions, or de-escalation signals before month-end could influence outcomes, while historical patterns of proxy or limited engagements in the region have rarely produced rapid territorial transfers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,513End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes targeted military installations on Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz during July 2026 amid broader escalation between Washington, Tehran, and Israeli forces in the ongoing Iran conflict. The island, administered by Iran with historical territorial claims noted by the UAE, sustained limited damage to IRGC missile and air defense systems, resulting in reported injuries but no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026 deadlines, reflecting the strikes' focused scope rather than ground operations or sustained campaigns. Further diplomatic pauses, additional targeted actions, or de-escalation signals before month-end could influence outcomes, while historical patterns of proxy or limited engagements in the region have rarely produced rapid territorial transfers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions