Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced around July 20, have driven sustained diversions and suppressed volumes, with daily commodity ship transits frequently falling into the low teens to mid-20s in late July and early August per Kpler tracking. This reflects heightened risk premiums for insurers and operators, prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for affected cargoes, particularly crude and refined products, while a Saudi-led multinational coalition has begun protective measures without yet restoring pre-blockade flows. Traffic has recovered modestly from July lows but remains well below historical norms, supporting the 42.5% market-implied probability on sub-180 weekly transits as the consensus view amid ongoing uncertainty over Houthi fee proposals (later denied) and potential further escalations. The narrower 180–219 bins price in partial stabilization if coalition efforts gain traction before the week's close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
<180 34%
220+ 21.0%
180-199 20.3%
200-219 7%
$14,706 Vol.
$14,706 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180
42%
180-199
17%
200-219
19%
220+
21%
<180 34%
220+ 21.0%
180-199 20.3%
200-219 7%
$14,706 Vol.
$14,706 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$8,840 Vol.
42%
180-199
$2,053 Vol.
17%
200-219
$2,508 Vol.
19%
220+
$1,305 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced around July 20, have driven sustained diversions and suppressed volumes, with daily commodity ship transits frequently falling into the low teens to mid-20s in late July and early August per Kpler tracking. This reflects heightened risk premiums for insurers and operators, prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for affected cargoes, particularly crude and refined products, while a Saudi-led multinational coalition has begun protective measures without yet restoring pre-blockade flows. Traffic has recovered modestly from July lows but remains well below historical norms, supporting the 42.5% market-implied probability on sub-180 weekly transits as the consensus view amid ongoing uncertainty over Houthi fee proposals (later denied) and potential further escalations. The narrower 180–219 bins price in partial stabilization if coalition efforts gain traction before the week's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$14,706End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced around July 20, have driven sustained diversions and suppressed volumes, with daily commodity ship transits frequently falling into the low teens to mid-20s in late July and early August per Kpler tracking. This reflects heightened risk premiums for insurers and operators, prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for affected cargoes, particularly crude and refined products, while a Saudi-led multinational coalition has begun protective measures without yet restoring pre-blockade flows. Traffic has recovered modestly from July lows but remains well below historical norms, supporting the 42.5% market-implied probability on sub-180 weekly transits as the consensus view amid ongoing uncertainty over Houthi fee proposals (later denied) and potential further escalations. The narrower 180–219 bins price in partial stabilization if coalition efforts gain traction before the week's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,706End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi declarations of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, announced around July 20, have driven sustained diversions and suppressed volumes, with daily commodity ship transits frequently falling into the low teens to mid-20s in late July and early August per Kpler tracking. This reflects heightened risk premiums for insurers and operators, prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for affected cargoes, particularly crude and refined products, while a Saudi-led multinational coalition has begun protective measures without yet restoring pre-blockade flows. Traffic has recovered modestly from July lows but remains well below historical norms, supporting the 42.5% market-implied probability on sub-180 weekly transits as the consensus view amid ongoing uncertainty over Houthi fee proposals (later denied) and potential further escalations. The narrower 180–219 bins price in partial stabilization if coalition efforts gain traction before the week's close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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