Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast and the group's maritime embargo threats sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler showed daily commodity vessel transits dropping to as low as 11 on July 27—the lowest in months—with weekly averages near 30 vessels amid widespread rerouting by tankers and bulk carriers. This geopolitical disruption, layered on persistent regional tensions, produced a clear market-implied range of 200-219 transits for the week, reflecting traders' assessment of verified volume declines rather than baseline seasonal norms. A rapid de-escalation or confirmed rebound in daily crossings above 40 could still pressure the outcome if post-week revisions alter final tallies, though current positioning embeds strong confidence in the observed suppression.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
200-219 100.0%
<200 <1%
220-239 <1%
240+ <1%
$15,211 Vol.
$15,211 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
<200
No
200-219
Yes
220-239
No
240+
No
200-219 100.0%
<200 <1%
220-239 <1%
240+ <1%
$15,211 Vol.
$15,211 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
<200
$7,809 Vol.
No
200-219
$5,845 Vol.
Yes
220-239
$912 Vol.
No
240+
$645 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast and the group's maritime embargo threats sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler showed daily commodity vessel transits dropping to as low as 11 on July 27—the lowest in months—with weekly averages near 30 vessels amid widespread rerouting by tankers and bulk carriers. This geopolitical disruption, layered on persistent regional tensions, produced a clear market-implied range of 200-219 transits for the week, reflecting traders' assessment of verified volume declines rather than baseline seasonal norms. A rapid de-escalation or confirmed rebound in daily crossings above 40 could still pressure the outcome if post-week revisions alter final tallies, though current positioning embeds strong confidence in the observed suppression.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$15,211End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast and the group's maritime embargo threats sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler showed daily commodity vessel transits dropping to as low as 11 on July 27—the lowest in months—with weekly averages near 30 vessels amid widespread rerouting by tankers and bulk carriers. This geopolitical disruption, layered on persistent regional tensions, produced a clear market-implied range of 200-219 transits for the week, reflecting traders' assessment of verified volume declines rather than baseline seasonal norms. A rapid de-escalation or confirmed rebound in daily crossings above 40 could still pressure the outcome if post-week revisions alter final tallies, though current positioning embeds strong confidence in the observed suppression.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$15,211End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast and the group's maritime embargo threats sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler showed daily commodity vessel transits dropping to as low as 11 on July 27—the lowest in months—with weekly averages near 30 vessels amid widespread rerouting by tankers and bulk carriers. This geopolitical disruption, layered on persistent regional tensions, produced a clear market-implied range of 200-219 transits for the week, reflecting traders' assessment of verified volume declines rather than baseline seasonal norms. A rapid de-escalation or confirmed rebound in daily crossings above 40 could still pressure the outcome if post-week revisions alter final tallies, though current positioning embeds strong confidence in the observed suppression.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions