**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including IRGC strikes on commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade reimposed in July, continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz.** Recent attacks on August 2–5, such as the projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer and reported explosions near tankers, have reinforced risk aversion, limiting activity primarily to selective Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on northern corridors. AIS tracking shows daily transits averaging just 5–16 in early August—well below pre-crisis baselines—translating to weekly totals clustered in lower ranges. Trader consensus reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 25–49 ships (versus 29.6% for under 25) incorporates this persistent suppression alongside modest managed recoveries, while higher bins remain discounted amid elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in strikes or shifts in U.S.-Iran blockade enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
25-49 54%
<25 29.6%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.9%
$45,728 Vol.
$45,728 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<25
30%
25-49
54%
50-74
8%
75-99
3%
100+
1%
25-49 54%
<25 29.6%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.9%
$45,728 Vol.
$45,728 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<25
$8,103 Vol.
30%
25-49
$8,811 Vol.
54%
50-74
$7,473 Vol.
8%
75-99
$7,797 Vol.
3%
100+
$13,545 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including IRGC strikes on commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade reimposed in July, continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz.**
Recent attacks on August 2–5, such as the projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer and reported explosions near tankers, have reinforced risk aversion, limiting activity primarily to selective Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on northern corridors. AIS tracking shows daily transits averaging just 5–16 in early August—well below pre-crisis baselines—translating to weekly totals clustered in lower ranges. Trader consensus reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 25–49 ships (versus 29.6% for under 25) incorporates this persistent suppression alongside modest managed recoveries, while higher bins remain discounted amid elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in strikes or shifts in U.S.-Iran blockade enforcement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$45,728End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including IRGC strikes on commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade reimposed in July, continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz.**
Recent attacks on August 2–5, such as the projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer and reported explosions near tankers, have reinforced risk aversion, limiting activity primarily to selective Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on northern corridors. AIS tracking shows daily transits averaging just 5–16 in early August—well below pre-crisis baselines—translating to weekly totals clustered in lower ranges. Trader consensus reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 25–49 ships (versus 29.6% for under 25) incorporates this persistent suppression alongside modest managed recoveries, while higher bins remain discounted amid elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in strikes or shifts in U.S.-Iran blockade enforcement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$45,728End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including IRGC strikes on commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade reimposed in July, continue to suppress transits through the Strait of Hormuz.** Recent attacks on August 2–5, such as the projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer and reported explosions near tankers, have reinforced risk aversion, limiting activity primarily to selective Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on northern corridors. AIS tracking shows daily transits averaging just 5–16 in early August—well below pre-crisis baselines—translating to weekly totals clustered in lower ranges. Trader consensus reflected in the 54.5% implied probability for 25–49 ships (versus 29.6% for under 25) incorporates this persistent suppression alongside modest managed recoveries, while higher bins remain discounted amid elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in strikes or shifts in U.S.-Iran blockade enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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