**Recent IAEA actions and stalled nuclear talks shape trader views on any near-term Iranian commitment to surrender or fully dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile.** Following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding after prior strikes on nuclear sites, the sides agreed to address the roughly 440 kilograms of pre-strike 60% enriched uranium through mechanisms that could include on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision, with further details deferred to final negotiations. As of September 2026, however, Iran has restricted IAEA access to declared facilities since mid-2025, leaving the agency without continuity of knowledge over the high-enriched uranium stockpile for more than a year. On September 9-10, the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran’s noncompliance to the UN Security Council—the first such action in two decades—citing unresolved uranium traces at undeclared sites and lack of verification. Iranian officials reject the move as politically driven while new construction activity has been noted at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain. These verification gaps and diplomatic frictions continue to influence assessments of timelines for any binding agreement on stockpile disposition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarket prices drop sharply as Iran shows no public uranium surrender agreement
December 31 plunges to 20%18%
By late June, despite earlier reports, no public agreement by Iran to surrender enriched uranium had been confirmed, leading to a collapse in market prices for all resolution dates, reflecting widespread skepticism about a deal before deadlines.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
December 31 dips to 21%1%
On June 24, reports emerged that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing negotiations with the US. This partial concession was seen as a potential step toward resolving disputes but did not fully restore market confidence.
Iran agrees to allow UN nuclear inspectors back as part of US deal
On June 22, 2026, Iran agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country as part of the agreement with the US, with Washington lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran made no new nuclear concessions, leaving uranium surrender unresolved.
US and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal including nuclear monitoring and sanctions
Negotiators from the US and Iran agreed to establish a committee to focus on nuclear monitoring and sanctions, and Iran agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back. This was a major milestone but did not confirm uranium stockpile surrender, keeping market prices low.
Market prices collapse as Iran fails to publicly finalize uranium surrender agreement by mid-June
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Despite earlier reports of agreement in principle, Iran did not publicly confirm or finalize any uranium surrender deal by mid-June, causing market prices for all resolution dates to plummet to near zero. This reflected market consensus that no formal surrender would occur by the resolution deadlines.
Iran’s foreign ministry confirms no uranium discussion in talks
June 30 dips to 1%3%
The foreign ministry reiterated that nuclear issues were not being discussed, coinciding with the market’s lowest “June 30” probability of 1 % in the data set.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 33%12%
Iran officially denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, causing market prices for uranium surrender outcomes to fall sharply, reflecting renewed skepticism about a deal.
Market prices hit lows amid persistent doubts over uranium stockpile surrender
June 30 dips to 2%4%
By mid-June, market prices for Iran surrendering uranium stockpile dropped to near floor levels across all resolution dates, reflecting widespread skepticism due to lack of public agreement and ongoing denials from Iranian officials.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by June 30 deadline
June 30 drops to 1%5%
Iran's refusal to surrender enriched uranium by the April and June deadlines led to a collapse in market prices for the June 30 and July 31 contracts, reflecting near certainty that no agreement would be reached by these dates.
US-Iran talks in Switzerland canceled after Hezbollah-Israel violence
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Planned US-Iran talks to implement a peace deal were canceled due to renewed violence between Hezbollah and Israel. This disruption increased uncertainty about uranium stockpile surrender and contributed to market pessimism near the June 30 deadline.
Formal US-Iran peace deal signing ceremony planned in Geneva
December 31 drops to 23%7%
Reports indicated a formal signing ceremony for the US-Iran peace deal was imminent, including provisions for a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program. However, no immediate uranium stockpile surrender was confirmed, leading to continued market skepticism and price declines.
Iran refuses to transfer enriched uranium, complicating US negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%8%
Iran's National Security Committee head declared refusal to transfer enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, reinforcing a hardened negotiation stance. This announcement decreased the likelihood of a uranium surrender deal by the end of 2026, reflected in market prices dropping to near lows.
Iran warns US on compliance as 14-point peace plan takes effect
On June 18, 2026, Iran warned it would closely monitor US compliance with the memorandum of understanding and would not fulfill commitments if the US evades obligations; Iran reaffirmed it would not ship enriched uranium abroad and favored downblending under IAEA supervision.
US releases official 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran
The US publicly released the signed memorandum detailing the agreement to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran’s nuclear program including downblending uranium under IAEA supervision. The document did not confirm Iran’s public agreement to surrender enriched uranium by March 31, 2026, leading to market prices near zero.
US and Iran sign Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding to end war and extend ceasefire
December 31 drops to 22%6%
US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and extend the ceasefire, including a 60-day negotiation period on nuclear issues. However, uranium stockpile surrender was deferred, maintaining market uncertainty and low probabilities for near-term surrender.
President Trump signs memorandum of understanding with Iran at Versailles
On June 17, 2026, President Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the interim deal to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin nuclear negotiations including uranium stockpile disposition.
US and Iran sign initial deal to end war and set 60-day timeline for nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
On June 17, 2026, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding to end the war, including a 60-day timeline to negotiate Iran’s nuclear program and uranium stockpile, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions, which briefly supported market optimism.
US announces start of nuclear talks with Iran after framework deal signing
December 31 drops to 22%6%
The US announced that nuclear negotiations with Iran would begin following the signing of a framework memorandum of understanding. This development raised hopes for progress but did not confirm uranium surrender, keeping market prices low.
US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding linking sanctions relief to nuclear compliance
December 31 drops to 30%8%
Senior US officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran establishing a framework for future engagement. The MoU ties sanctions relief to verified nuclear compliance, including uranium stockpile management, signaling progress but not immediate uranium surrender, which contributed to cautious market optimism.
Iran reaffirms refusal to transfer enriched uranium, citing distrust of U.S.
July 31 drops to 9%7%
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad was not on the agenda due to distrust of the U.S., reinforcing skepticism about uranium surrender and causing market prices for near-term surrender to drop to single digits.
Market prices collapse as Iran fails to publicly confirm uranium surrender agreement
December 31 drops to 27%14%
By mid-June, the market prices for all resolution dates dropped to historic lows, reflecting the absence of any public agreement or formal confirmation from Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the March 31 deadline.
US and Iran announce initial deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
December 31 drops to 21%7%
The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear program fate to be negotiated later. The deal included commitments to downblend uranium under IAEA supervision but no explicit uranium surrender by March 31, 2026, causing market uncertainty.
Iran reveals draft US deal includes nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and asset release
December 31 drops to 22%6%
On June 14, 2026, a senior Iranian official disclosed that a final draft memorandum of understanding with the US included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade within 30 days, waiving oil sanctions temporarily, releasing $25 billion in frozen assets, and nuclear commitments including no production or acquisition of nuclear weapons and negotiations on uranium stockpile dilution within 60 days.
Iran and US finalize draft memorandum covering nuclear work and sanctions
A senior Iranian official confirmed a final draft memorandum of understanding with the US covering Iran's nuclear program, including uranium enrichment activities and handling of its stockpile, alongside sanctions relief and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement set a 60-day window for further negotiations but did not confirm uranium surrender by the resolution date.
Draft US-Iran memorandum includes uranium dilution, not immediate transfer
December 31 drops to 27%13%
A senior Iranian official stated that the draft memorandum of understanding with the U.S. includes provisions for Iran to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement, rather than immediate transfer abroad. This reflects ongoing negotiation complexities and contributed to market uncertainty.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile to third country, likely China
December 31 dips to 35%3%
Reports surfaced that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, with China as a likely recipient, as part of a potential nuclear deal with the US. This development suggested progress but lacked official confirmation, maintaining market uncertainty.
Iran refuses to transfer enriched uranium, complicating US negotiations
December 31 drops to 27%13%
Iran's National Security Committee declared it would not transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, rejecting a key US demand. This refusal reinforced market skepticism about a uranium surrender deal by the end of 2026 and reduced expectations for related agreements by June 30.
Israel launches attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran suspends nuclear talks
December 31 drops to 23%10%
Israel conducted large-scale attacks targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, leading Iran to withdraw and suspend nuclear talks indefinitely. This escalation increased uncertainty and reduced market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement by mid-June.
Reports reveal Iran mined entrances to nuclear sites to deter uranium raids
December 31 drops to 28%10%
CNN and Times of Israel reported that Iran collapsed tunnels and mined entrances to its nuclear facilities to prevent US raids to seize enriched uranium, indicating bad faith and complicating uranium surrender prospects, leading to market declines.
Iran issues military warning amid uranium tensions, dampening surrender prospects
June 30 drops to 4%6%
Iran issued a military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions, increasing geopolitical risks and reducing market confidence in uranium surrender by near-term deadlines.
U.S. officials say Iran‑stockpile deal still tentative, no formal pact yet
June 30 drops to 5%13%
A follow‑up statement from U.S. officials clarified that no formal agreement had yet been signed, causing the June‑30 market to slip back toward low single‑digit probabilities.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
June 30 jumps to 12%6%
Al Arabiya reported that Iran had agreed to move part of the stockpile to China, a development that caused a modest rise in the June‑30 contract before a subsequent drop.
IAEA Board passes resolution demanding Iran declare enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 39%9%
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a US-backed resolution demanding Iran provide full information on its enriched uranium and allow inspections, increasing international pressure but not resolving the issue, keeping market skepticism high.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, hardening stance
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, signaling a hardening stance that decreased market confidence in a finalized uranium surrender agreement by the end of 2026.
IAEA reports inability to verify Iran's uranium enrichment suspension
June 30 drops to 1%9%
The IAEA issued a confidential report stating it could not verify whether Iran had suspended uranium enrichment activities due to restricted access to nuclear sites. This report heightened concerns about Iran's nuclear program transparency and negatively impacted market confidence in uranium surrender by June 30.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
Iran officially denied having reached any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, causing market confidence in a near-term surrender deal to decline sharply.
Iran rejects US nuclear deal proposal, plans counteroffer via Oman
December 31 drops to 28%10%
On June 9, Iran rejected the US proposal for a new nuclear deal, including terms on uranium stockpile handling, and announced plans to present a counteroffer through Omani mediators. This rejection contributed to market declines in the likelihood of uranium surrender by deadlines.
Trump announces Iran nuclear deal days away amid ongoing tensions
December 31 dips to 28%4%
President Trump stated a deal to end the war with Iran was "two or three days" away, signaling imminent agreement. However, ongoing military exchanges and unresolved uranium stockpile issues tempered market enthusiasm, limiting price gains.
IAEA Board demands Iran provide information on enriched uranium stockpiles and access
December 31 drops to 22%6%
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution urging Iran to provide complete information on its enriched uranium stockpiles and grant access for verification. This increased international pressure on Iran but did not indicate Iran's agreement to surrender uranium, maintaining market uncertainty.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile to third country, likely China
December 31 drops to 36%5%
Reports indicated Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing nuclear negotiations with the US. This partial concession suggested progress but left details unresolved, keeping market confidence low for near-term uranium surrender.
Iran agrees to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third state
June 30 rises to 10%3%
Reports emerged that Iran was willing to transfer part of its stockpile to a third country (likely China). The news gave a modest lift to the “June 30” market, which rose from 7 % to a brief 10 % before settling back.
Iran signals willingness to transfer part of uranium stockpile to third country
June 30 jumps to 19%9%
Reports that Iran was willing to transfer a portion of the stockpile to a third country briefly lifted the June‑30 “Yes” odds before the market slid again later in the week.
IAEA reports inability to verify Iran's enriched uranium stockpile after war
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported it could not verify the size, location, or status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile due to lack of access to nuclear sites damaged in the 2025-2026 conflict, raising concerns about transparency and compliance.
IAEA reports Iran blocks nuclear inspectors amid ongoing tensions
December 31 drops to 32%6%
The IAEA reported that Iran refused access to most nuclear facilities, hindering verification of uranium stockpile status. This lack of transparency increased doubts about uranium surrender, negatively impacting market prices.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
June 30 drops to 6%13%
Reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles abroad, hardening Iran’s negotiating position and causing market confidence in near-term uranium surrender to drop sharply.
US officials confirm Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpile
US officials publicly stated that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market optimism for a surrender deal despite remaining uncertainties about formalization and verification.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
June 30 plunges to 6%23%
In early June 2026, reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles abroad. This directive reinforced skepticism about Iran’s willingness to surrender uranium, causing market prices for near-term surrender dates to decline further.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
December 31 plunges to 20%24%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly rejected US demands to transfer enriched uranium abroad, citing lack of trust, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and causing further market declines in surrender probabilities.
Iran’s foreign minister says uranium transfer not on agenda
June 30 drops to 12%10%
The foreign minister reiterated that transferring the stockpile abroad was not on the agenda, causing the “June 30” market probability to tumble from 22 % to 12 % that week.
Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran does not surrender uranium by end of June
June 30 drops to 9%12%
Trump warned that if no agreement was reached by the end of his China trip, the United States could resume military action. The renewed threat further eroded confidence, pushing the Yes probability for the June‑30 contract down to a historic low of 9 % by June 2.
US officials confirm Iran agreed in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials publicly stated that Iran has agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, marking a significant diplomatic development. This announcement temporarily supported market prices despite ongoing uncertainty about formalization and verification.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
By early June 2026, reports indicated Iran refused to surrender its enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, causing the April 30 market to collapse and reflecting skepticism about near-term uranium surrender.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran’s enriched uranium by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 12%21%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US would face in securing Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, causing market skepticism and a sharp drop in optimism for the April 30 deadline and near-term surrender dates.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer citing distrust of US
December 31 drops to 30%7%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium was not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, further diminishing the likelihood of uranium surrender. This official stance contributed to the market's continued decline in confidence for a 'Yes' outcome.
Iran pushes for limited interim deal avoiding major uranium concessions
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Reports indicated Iran sought a limited interim agreement with the US to ease economic pressure without major concessions on its enriched uranium stockpile, causing renewed doubts about uranium surrender by mid-2026.
Market prices decline amid uncertainty over formal uranium surrender deal
December 31 dips to 38%4%
Despite earlier optimism, market prices declined in early June as details on enforcement and formal agreement remained unclear, causing doubts about Iran's uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
Market skepticism persists despite Iran's uranium surrender agreement
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Despite Iran's reported agreement to surrender its uranium stockpile, market prices declined sharply by early June, reflecting ongoing skepticism about the deal's finalization and implementation amid unresolved details and Iran's historical resistance.
Iran reaffirms enriched uranium not for transfer, citing U.S. distrust
July 31 plunges to 14%21%
Iran’s foreign minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad was not on the agenda, citing distrust of the U.S. The denial caused the May‑31 market to plunge to single‑digit levels and pulled down the July‑31 price.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson again rejected US demands for surrender, causing a brief dip in the June‑30 odds after earlier optimism.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 8%24%
Iran publicly rejected US demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline, signaling a hardline stance that led to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 and May 31 surrender outcomes, reflecting diminished confidence in near-term surrender.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Iran denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal. The denial coincided with a steep drop in the June‑30 market to single‑digit levels.
Market skepticism grows as formal uranium surrender agreement remains unconfirmed
July 31 drops to 18%13%
Despite earlier reports, no formal public agreement or verification by the IAEA was announced by May 31, leading to a sharp decline in market prices reflecting doubts about Iran's commitment to surrender its uranium stockpile by the deadline.
US-Iran tensions rise amid logistical challenges to uranium surrender by April 30 deadline
June 30 drops to 8%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline would be an unprecedented challenge, causing market optimism for the April 30 surrender to drop sharply. This highlighted operational and diplomatic difficulties, reducing confidence in an early surrender.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed on May 31 that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling progress in negotiations and briefly supporting market optimism. However, the 'in principle' nature left uncertainty about formalization and verification.
Iran denies uranium transfer agreement after Trump claim
June 30 plunges to 7%22%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly denied U.S. President Trump’s claim that Iran had agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile, reaffirming the uranium’s sacred status and rejecting U.S. demands. This denial caused a sharp drop in market confidence for uranium surrender by June 30, 2026.
President Trump publicly demands Iran surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
On May 31, 2026, President Trump publicly reiterated demands that Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and emphasizing the importance of dismantling Iran's atomic capabilities. His statements contributed to market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's prospects.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 12%18%
The Wall Street Journal reported on May 30, 2026, that removing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented logistical and military challenge for the US. This report led to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 deadline, reflecting skepticism about near-term resolution.
IAEA in talks with Russia on Iran’s enriched uranium transfer
The International Atomic Energy Agency engaged in discussions with Russia about the potential transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium, indicating multilateral efforts but also highlighting the complexity and diplomatic challenges of uranium custody. This contributed to market uncertainty and modest price movements for uranium surrender by May 31, 2026.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and reducing market expectations for uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
US officials confirm Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, a significant diplomatic development that supported market prices for uranium surrender despite remaining uncertainties about formalization and verification.
Kazakhstan open to hosting Iran's enriched uranium stockpile under agreement
December 31 rises to 55%2%
On May 30, 2026, reports emerged that Kazakhstan expressed willingness to host Iran's enriched uranium stockpile if a future agreement is reached, suggesting a potential third-party custodian role and influencing market expectations positively.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
December 31 surges to 62%16%
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, including discussions on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, pending final approval by President Trump.
Trump urges negotiators not to rush into an Iran deal
July 31 drops to 27%7%
President Trump tempered expectations by stating that negotiations were proceeding orderly but instructed representatives not to rush, keeping the blockade in full force.
US and Iran reach tentative agreement to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
On May 28, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance announced a tentative agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and begin new nuclear negotiations, including discussions on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. However, President Trump had not yet signed off, and key issues remained unresolved, causing market uncertainty.
Trump touts progress on Iran uranium surrender on Truth Social
June 30 rises to 21%4%
Trump’s repeated social‑media posts about a “largely negotiated” memorandum and the prospect of a surrender boosted the June‑30 market sharply in the last week of May.
Trump nears Iran nuclear deal as Tehran agrees to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 jumps to 26%8%
Benzinga reported that Iran had tentatively agreed to relinquish its stockpile as a condition of a nascent nuclear agreement, reinforcing the upward trend in the June‑30 market.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal offer
July 31 plunges to 18%17%
Iran offered to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of peace talks, diverging from U.S. demands for direct surrender to U.S. custody. The U.S. dismissed the offer, maintaining low market confidence in near-term uranium surrender.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 39%14%
Iran publicly denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, contradicting US claims and causing market confidence in uranium surrender to decline sharply.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
December 31 drops to 38%12%
In late May 2026, reports confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of the enriched uranium stockpile from Iran, contradicting U.S. claims and causing market skepticism about uranium surrender.
Iran denies any agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Iran again denied any agreement to surrender the stockpile, stating the nuclear issue would be addressed later in final talks. The denial caused a second dip in Yes odds for all three contracts, bringing the December‑31 market back down to the high‑40 % range.
Iran denies uranium stockpile handover amid ongoing US talks
December 31 plunges to 40%15%
On May 27, Iranian officials publicly denied any agreement to hand over enriched uranium, contradicting US statements and increasing market skepticism. This denial led to a decline in market prices for uranium surrender, reflecting doubts about Iran's willingness to comply with demands for uranium transfer.
Iran’s foreign ministry says uranium not on agenda of talks
June 30 drops to 9%6%
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was not discussing nuclear issues in the current talks, a clear denial that contributed to the continued decline of the “June 30” market to single‑digit levels.
IAEA Director Grossi reports bulk of Iran’s uranium stockpile hidden underground
December 31 dips to 43%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that most of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is likely stored underground in Isfahan tunnels, complicating verification and removal efforts. This highlighted logistical challenges and contributed to market caution despite diplomatic progress.
Iran’s NSC deputy says enriched uranium not in US‑Iran talks
July 31 drops to 35%9%
Deputy Secretary Ali Baqeri said enriched uranium was not part of the first round of US‑Iran talks, reinforcing the perception that no agreement existed. The market’s “July 31” probability slid from 44 % to 35 % that day.
Iran’s foreign ministry says uranium stockpile not on negotiation agenda
December 31 drops to 45%10%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the enriched‑uranium issue was not on the agenda of the talks, directly contradicting earlier claims of a deal. The market’s “December 31” probability fell from 55 % to 45 % within a day.
Iran claims US talks exclude enriched uranium stockpile issue
July 31 drops to 25%10%
Iranian officials stated that the first round of peace talks with the US did not address the enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting US claims that uranium surrender was a negotiation point. This statement reinforced market doubts about a near-term uranium surrender agreement.
Iran denies enriched uranium stockpile handover agreement
December 31 drops to 46%7%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran officially denied any deal to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, citing distrust of the US and rejecting demands for uranium transfer. This denial caused market prices for uranium surrender to decline, reflecting increased skepticism about a formal uranium handover before the deadline.
Reports of Iran exploring uranium transfer to China amid ceasefire talks
July 31 plunges to 10%17%
Reports emerged that Iran was considering transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to China as part of a ceasefire deal with the U.S., though Iran’s Supreme Leader publicly opposed exporting the stockpile. This added complexity to negotiations and contributed to market uncertainty and declining optimism for uranium surrender by July 31, 2026.
Kazakhstan open to hosting Iran's enriched uranium stockpile under agreement
December 31 plunges to 53%15%
Kazakhstan indicated willingness to host Iran's enriched uranium stockpile if a future agreement is reached, providing a potential solution for uranium custody and increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Market skepticism returns as Iran has not publicly confirmed uranium surrender
December 31 drops to 38%10%
Despite reports of an agreement, Iran had not publicly confirmed surrendering its uranium stockpile, and details on enforcement remained unclear, causing market prices to decline again across all contracts as uncertainty persisted.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
December 31 plunges to 31%22%
On May 26, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported on the significant logistical and military challenges the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence for the April 30 outcome.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and reducing market confidence in a uranium surrender deal by year-end.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
July 31 plunges to 17%27%
Iran again denied any agreement to hand over the stockpile, reaffirming that the issue was not part of the current cease‑fire deal. The denial pushed the July‑31 contract down from a high of 44 % on 2026‑05‑25 to a low of 17 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Trump vows the U.S. will retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile
July 31 jumps to 34%6%
Trump reiterated that the United States would retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The repeated pressure produced a modest rebound in Yes prices for the July‑31 market (up to 34 %).
President Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%28%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, causing a significant rally in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026. However, Iran did not confirm this claim, leaving uncertainty.
US President Trump announces Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to be destroyed or transferred
December 31 jumps to 44%11%
President Trump publicly stated that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile would be either turned over to the US for destruction or destroyed in place under supervision, signaling US demands and influencing market perceptions of a possible deal.
US President Trump demands Iran surrender or destroy enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
On May 26, President Trump publicly demanded that Iran either transfer its enriched uranium to the US for destruction or destroy it in place under international supervision. This statement underscored US pressure and influenced market perceptions of the negotiation dynamics.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 46%35%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran publicly denied any deal to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, causing market skepticism and a decline in confidence for uranium surrender by year-end.
President Trump outlines options to destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
President Trump stated that Iran’s enriched uranium would either be turned over to the US for destruction or destroyed in place under supervision, signaling US demands and influencing market expectations about uranium surrender.
Trump says U.S. will retrieve and possibly destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. would retrieve and likely destroy Iran’s stockpile, spurring a brief rise in the December‑31 market before the mixed messages caused volatility.
US President Trump outlines options for disposing of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 44%6%
President Trump publicly stated that Iran's enriched uranium would either be turned over to the US for destruction or destroyed in place with Iranian cooperation. This statement highlighted US insistence on uranium surrender but did not confirm Iran's agreement, contributing to market volatility.
Trump announces Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement further boosted market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement.
Trump claims Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium in nuclear deal
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a broader peace agreement, causing a temporary market rally.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
Iran officially denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism about a near-term surrender and causing market prices to adjust downward for uranium surrender outcomes.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer citing distrust of US
May 31 drops to 0%9%
Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism and causing market prices for earlier surrender deadlines to drop sharply.
Trump claims Iran has largely negotiated uranium surrender deal
June 30 jumps to 47%12%
Trump announced on Truth Social that Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum that would see the stockpile surrendered. The announcement coincided with a short‑term surge to 47 % Yes on the June‑30 contract (up from 35 % on 2026‑05‑23).
Market reacts to Iran's reported uranium surrender agreement amid ongoing uncertainty
December 31 drops to 47%6%
Following reports of Iran's uranium surrender agreement, markets showed increased optimism but remained cautious due to lack of formal details and Iran's silence. Prices fluctuated as traders weighed the credibility and enforceability of the deal.
Conflicting reports emerge on Iran's uranium surrender agreement
Conflicting reports surfaced with some US officials claiming Iran agreed to surrender uranium stockpile, while others and Iranian officials denied the claim, creating market uncertainty and volatility.
Iran denies agreement to transfer enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 38%15%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran officially denied having agreed to surrender or transfer its enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing that nuclear issues were not part of initial peace talks. This denial caused a sharp drop in market confidence, reflecting skepticism about Iran's willingness to comply with uranium surrender demands.
Trump Confirms Progress on Largely Negotiated Iran Peace Deal
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
President Trump announced that a comprehensive Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was largely negotiated, though implementation details regarding the uranium removal remained to be finalized.
President Trump announces Iran uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 surges to 68%18%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market confidence in a deal and causing a surge in the December 31 contract price.
Pakistan Army confirms encouraging progress in Iran-US negotiations
December 31 jumps to 52%13%
Pakistan's military confirmed progress toward a final understanding in negotiations involving Iran and the US, supporting the diplomatic momentum and market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
US and Iran agree in principle to deal including uranium stockpile surrender and Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
On May 25, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran had agreed in principle to a deal that would see Tehran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details on the uranium transfer mechanism.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance that decreased market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement by year-end.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the export of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, hardening Iran’s negotiating position and causing market confidence in near-term uranium surrender to drop sharply.
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
July 31 plunges to 23%21%
Iran issued a military warning in response to US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in Iran surrendering uranium by July 31, contributing to price declines for near-term surrender deadlines.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 39%25%
Later on May 24, 2026, Iranian officials and senior sources publicly denied any agreement to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile, stating that the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal and would be addressed only in future negotiations. This denial caused a sharp drop in market confidence.
President Trump announces Iran's commitment to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, a key US demand, signaling a potential breakthrough in negotiations and boosting market optimism temporarily.
Iran publicly reported to agree in principle to relinquish enriched uranium stockpile in US-led peace deal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Following the May 23 reports, further media coverage confirmed Iran's in-principle agreement to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework. However, details on the mechanism and formalization remained pending, leaving uncertainty in the market.
Trump announces largely negotiated peace deal with Iran
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
President Trump announced on Truth Social that a peace deal was largely negotiated, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address the nuclear stockpile.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
Following reports of an agreement, Iranian officials publicly denied any finalized deal to transfer enriched uranium abroad, reaffirming that uranium issues remain for future negotiations, which caused market skepticism and price declines.
Reports confirm Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in US-led peace deal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
On May 24, multiple reports confirmed Iran's in-principle agreement to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework. This was accompanied by statements from President Trump and regional leaders, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Senior Iranian source tells Reuters no uranium hand‑over agreement
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Reuters reported a senior Iranian source saying Tehran had not agreed to ship any of its highly enriched uranium, reinforcing market pessimism and pulling the December‑31 “Yes” odds lower.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson firmly rejected US demands for Iran to hand over its enriched uranium, labeling such demands as non-starters. This reinforced market expectations that Iran would not surrender its uranium stockpile by the end of 2026.
Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium as part of US proposed peace deal
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Multiple reports confirmed Iran's agreement to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal with the US, though details on transfer or disposal remain unresolved, sustaining cautious market optimism.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile amid US talks
June 30 plunges to 6%41%
Iran denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal with the US. This denial coincided with a steep drop in market optimism for uranium surrender by June 30, 2026.
Pakistan Army Chief visits Tehran to mediate US-Iran negotiations
Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir visited Tehran to mediate and narrow gaps in US-Iran negotiations, signaling diplomatic efforts to finalize an agreement including uranium stockpile issues. This contributed to cautious market optimism about a potential deal.
Iran rejects US demands for uranium surrender, tensions rise
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Iran's National Security Commission publicly rejected US demands for uranium surrender, signaling continued resistance and complicating diplomatic efforts. This hardened stance led to a decline in market confidence regarding uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
Iranian source reiterates no agreement on uranium stockpile surrender
December 31 drops to 33%11%
A senior Iranian source reiterated to Reuters that Iran had not agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and that the nuclear issue was reserved for final agreement negotiations, maintaining official Iranian opposition to the uranium surrender claim and contributing to market declines.
Trump says Iran close to peace deal that includes uranium surrender
July 31 surges to 44%19%
Following the May 23 report, President Trump publicly announced that Iran was close to a deal that would involve surrendering the stockpile. The announcement reinforced market optimism, pushing the Yes price for the July‑31 contract to a two‑week high.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement including uranium surrender talks
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
On May 24, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement after months of conflict, with discussions including uranium stockpile surrender, though Iran officially denied agreeing to hand over uranium, causing mixed market reactions.
Reuters: Iran has not agreed to transfer enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 14%7%
Reuters reported that Iran had NOT agreed to hand over its highly‑enriched uranium, quoting an Iranian source. The market’s “June 30” odds dropped from 21 % to 14 % following the story.
US and Iran agree in principle to deal reopening Strait of Hormuz and uranium disposal
December 31 jumps to 54%5%
A senior US official announced that the US and Iran agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and include Iran's commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, marking a significant diplomatic development.
Reports claim Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials reported that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal, marking a major diplomatic development. However, Iran denied any formal agreement, creating uncertainty and market volatility.
President Trump announces Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
December 31 rises to 48%4%
President Trump publicly announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This announcement briefly boosted market confidence in a uranium surrender by year-end.
US President Trump announces Iran uranium surrender in emerging deal
December 31 jumps to 44%5%
President Donald Trump publicly announced that an agreement had been largely negotiated including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing earlier reports and briefly boosting market optimism despite Iranian denials.
Iran officially denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Following reports of an agreement, Iranian officials publicly denied any deal to surrender enriched uranium, stating the nuclear issue remains under negotiation. This contradiction introduced renewed uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm.
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding was largely negotiated with Iran, including commitments on uranium surrender and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
July 31 jumps to 34%9%
A senior Iranian source firmly denied that Tehran had agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal.
Reports emerge Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in US-led peace deal
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
Multiple outlets reported that Iran agreed in principle to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of an emerging US-led framework to halt regional conflict. This news boosted market optimism despite unresolved details on uranium transfer mechanisms.
Iran says uranium not covered in preliminary U.S. deal
December 31 drops to 42%13%
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the uranium issue was not part of the preliminary U.S.–Iran understanding, reinforcing doubts and contributing to a decline in the “December 31” market later in May.
Senior Iranian source denies agreement to transfer enriched uranium abroad
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Reuters reported that Iran had not agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile abroad, contradicting earlier reports and increasing uncertainty about the deal's progress, which negatively impacted market prices.
Iran agrees to give up uranium in critical breakthrough announced by Trump
May 31 jumps to 16%10%
Trump announced a largely negotiated deal including Iran’s willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material, though details remained unconfirmed by Iran. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism for uranium surrender by May 31.
US-Iran peace deal includes Iran’s commitment to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
US and Iranian officials, along with mediators including Pakistan, announced progress toward a peace deal that includes Iran’s commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details.
Reports of Iran agreeing to give up uranium in critical breakthrough
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Reports emerged that Iran had verbally indicated willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material as part of a deal, with President Trump announcing a largely negotiated agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This news briefly boosted market prices but uncertainty remained about finalization.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile amid reports of progress
July 31 plunges to 14%21%
Iranian officials denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile despite reports of progress in negotiations with the U.S., maintaining that uranium issues would be addressed in future talks. This denial caused market skepticism and a decline in confidence for uranium surrender by July 31, 2026.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Reports indicated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile under a developing deal with the US, with Trump framing the uranium as 'nuclear dust' and emphasizing the importance of dismantling Iran's atomic capabilities.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 1%15%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran officially denied having agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal. This denial caused market skepticism and price declines, especially for earlier surrender deadlines.
US President Trump announces largely negotiated deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 44%11%
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This announcement boosted market confidence and prices for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
US President Trump confirms ongoing high-level talks on uranium surrender deal
President Trump confirmed active engagement in high-level discussions with regional leaders to finalize a comprehensive memorandum including Iran’s uranium surrender, signaling diplomatic momentum and supporting market confidence.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium stockpile abroad
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Following reports of Iran's agreement, Iranian sources and government officials denied any agreement to hand over enriched uranium, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal with the US. This denial reinforced market doubts about uranium surrender.
Reports emerge that Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 64%22%
US officials reported that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting market confidence in a YES outcome for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in major US‑led peace deal
June 30 surges to 50%15%
ANI re‑published the May 23 report, emphasizing that Iran had agreed in principle to relinquish its stockpile within a U.S.‑led peace deal, reinforcing the upward move in the June‑30 market.
Trump confirms active engagement in US-led multilateral talks on Iran uranium surrender
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump publicly confirmed ongoing high-level discussions with regional leaders to secure a comprehensive agreement including Iran's surrender of enriched uranium, reinforcing market confidence in a deal by year-end.
Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in US-led peace deal
December 31 jumps to 45%12%
Iran publicly agreed in principle to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led framework to halt regional conflict, boosting market confidence in a surrender agreement before year-end.
Pakistan confirms encouraging progress in Iran-US peace negotiations
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, announced encouraging progress toward a final understanding in the Iran-US negotiations, supporting optimism about a potential uranium surrender agreement and regional peace deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu supports deal requiring Iran to remove enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Israeli PM Netanyahu stated he and President Trump agreed that any accord must compel Iran to dismantle nuclear sites and remove enriched uranium, reflecting Israel's key condition for peace and influencing market sentiment.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 51%9%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, supporting market optimism for a YES outcome. However, the agreement was not formalized or verified by the IAEA, leaving uncertainty.
Pakistan confirms progress in mediation between US and Iran
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Pakistan’s army released a statement confirming encouraging progress toward a final understanding in US-Iran negotiations, including uranium stockpile issues, raising hopes for a deal and temporarily boosting market confidence.
Trump announces near-final Iran deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
President Trump announced that a largely negotiated memorandum of understanding with Iran includes surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and increasing market confidence.
Trump announces Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in emerging deal
December 31 jumps to 57%12%
Trump announced that Iran had verbally agreed to give up its highly‑enriched uranium as part of a broader U.S.‑led peace framework, reinforcing the market’s bullish move for the “December 31” outcome.
US officials confirm Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, supporting market optimism despite remaining uncertainties about formalization and verification.
Conflicting reports emerge on Iran uranium surrender deal progress
December 31 drops to 37%9%
While US officials claimed Iran had agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium, Iranian sources and the Supreme National Security Council denied any agreement to transfer uranium abroad, creating confusion and uncertainty in the market about the deal's viability.
NYT: Iran agrees in principle to give up highly enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 55%10%
The New York Times reported that U.S. officials said Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium, reviving market optimism and pushing the “December 31” price back up to the mid‑50s.
Reports of Iran tentatively agreeing to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 57%17%
Reports emerged that Iran tentatively agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader nuclear deal with the U.S., causing a temporary increase in market optimism and prices for later surrender dates.
Trump announces Iran's uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, a key US demand, signaling a potential breakthrough and causing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran reportedly agrees to hand over enriched uranium stockpile as part of Trump deal
December 31 rises to 50%4%
A report citing US officials confirmed Iran had agreed to surrender its uranium stockpile, a major development that increased market confidence in a resolution.
Trump announces Iran uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 surges to 68%36%
President Trump publicly announced Iran's agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market confidence in a deal. The announcement highlighted U.S. negotiation tactics and the potential for a broader peace agreement.
Trump nears Iran nuclear deal as Tehran agrees to surrender enriched uranium: report
December 31 surges to 68%36%
The New York Times and other outlets reported that Iran tentatively agreed to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, a key condition for a nuclear deal. This report increased market optimism but also sparked Republican skepticism, reflecting political complexities.
Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in deal announced by Trump, U.S. officials say
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
The New York Times reported that Iran committed to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging deal with the US, with military pressure playing a role. This report reinforced market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
Iran officially denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism about a near-term surrender and causing market prices to adjust downward for uranium surrender outcomes.
Reports say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 43%10%
U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, briefly boosting market optimism despite ongoing uncertainty about implementation details.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
June 30 jumps to 31%13%
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender the stockpile, reviving market confidence and pushing the June‑30 odds up again.
Iran reportedly agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile in U.S. deal
December 31 surges to 62%19%
Reports emerged that Iran committed in broad terms to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging U.S.-led peace framework, driving a massive surge in market optimism.
NYT: Iran verbally agrees to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 72%31%
The New York Times reported, citing two U.S. officials, that Iran had verbally agreed to surrender its stockpile as part of a broader peace framework. The report triggered a rapid swing of +31 points on May 24, pushing the December‑31 Yes probability to its peak of 72 %.
US officials say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 59%11%
US officials announced that Iran had committed in broad terms to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a proposed peace deal, a key US demand, though details on how and when remained unresolved. This announcement boosted market confidence in a potential deal.
US officials announce Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%13%
US officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026. However, details on the mechanism and verification remained unresolved.
Reports say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Multiple credible reports, including from The New York Times and US officials, indicated Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal. This major diplomatic breakthrough caused a significant rise in market optimism about a YES outcome.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender enriched uranium, with President Trump framing this as a key objective, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and raising market optimism.
US negotiators warn Iran of military strikes if uranium surrender not agreed
December 31 surges to 66%34%
US officials warned Iran that military strikes could resume if it refused to surrender its uranium stockpile, pressuring Iran to concede and contributing to the reported agreement to surrender uranium, impacting market prices positively.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials announced that Iran had agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, causing a rise in market prices for the December 31 surrender outcome, reflecting increased optimism about a potential agreement.
Reports say Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US-led framework
Multiple reports, including from The New York Times and US officials, indicated that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace agreement with the US. This news briefly boosted market optimism, though Iran did not publicly confirm the agreement, and details on implementation remained unclear.
Trump announces Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market confidence in a potential deal and signaling progress in negotiations.
Report: Trump secures Iran deal to surrender 'nuclear dust' uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
The New York Times reported that Iran signed a statement promising to give up its enriched uranium, a key breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, boosting market optimism despite ongoing skepticism from Iran.
Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium in emerging deal
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging deal, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details on implementation and verification.
Trump announces Iran will surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 47%6%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its “nuclear dust” stockpile in a developing U.S.‑Iran deal. The announcement pushed the December‑31 contract sharply higher, reflecting market optimism for a year‑end surrender.
U.S. officials report Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
On May 23, 2026, U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, causing a significant market rally and optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
U.S. officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
June 30 surges to 21%15%
U.S. officials announced Iran had agreed “in principle” to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, lifting the “Yes” price for the June‑30 contract from single digits to the high‑teens.
NYT reports Iran pledges to give up enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 46%13%
The New York Times reported that Iran had apparently committed to give up its stockpile as part of a U.S.‑led framework, prompting a brief rally in the December‑31 contract.
US officials announce Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
On May 23, 2026, multiple US officials and President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal. This announcement caused a significant surge in market optimism, with the December 31 contract jumping sharply.
US officials report Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
US officials disclosed that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market confidence for the December 31 outcome despite uncertainty about formal agreement and verification.
U.S. officials say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%38%
U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, causing a significant surge in market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, despite lack of public Iranian confirmation.
Iran reportedly agrees to surrender uranium stockpile – IJR
June 30 surges to 50%15%
The New York Times, cited by multiple outlets, reported that Iran had reached a tentative agreement to hand over its stockpile as part of a U.S.–led peace framework, boosting the June‑30 market sharply.
Reports: Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 48%8%
Multiple reports, including from The New York Times and U.S. officials, indicated Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a U.S.-led peace deal. This caused a temporary surge in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 51%9%
U.S. officials announced that Iran has agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, marking a significant diplomatic development and causing a temporary market rally in uranium surrender likelihood.
Iran reportedly agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US deal
December 31 rises to 50%4%
Reports from The New York Times and other outlets confirmed Iran's agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led deal, a major breakthrough in negotiations that briefly boosted market optimism.
Trump says Iran has agreed in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Trump announced on Truth Social that Iran had “in principle” agreed to dispose of its enriched uranium, briefly reviving optimism; the “December 31” market rose from 45 % to 50 % the next day.
Reports of Iran agreeing in principle to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 44%12%
Multiple reports, including from The New York Times and US officials, indicated that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal. This raised market optimism despite unresolved details on disposal methods.
US officials report Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
On May 23, US officials announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal. This marked a major diplomatic development and caused a significant increase in market prices for uranium surrender by later dates.
Reports that Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US-led deal
December 31 rises to 48%2%
Reports surfaced that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of an agreement announced by US President Trump. This development briefly raised market expectations for a YES outcome, though Iran had not publicly confirmed the agreement, leaving uncertainty.
Reports emerge that Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US deal
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
On May 23, reports surfaced citing US officials that Iran had agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led agreement. This news briefly raised market optimism, though Iran had not publicly confirmed the agreement, leaving uncertainty.
Reports emerge Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium in US deal
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
On May 23, multiple credible reports including from The New York Times and other outlets announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led agreement. This news caused a temporary surge in market prices reflecting increased optimism about a deal.
President Trump announces Iran's uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging US deal, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism about the likelihood of uranium surrender before the deadlines.
Reports say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 jumps to 47%12%
On May 23, 2026, multiple reports including from The New York Times and U.S. officials indicated that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a US-led peace deal. This announcement caused a surge in market optimism for uranium surrender by June 30 and December 31, 2026.
Reports emerge that Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US deal
Reports citing US officials indicated Iran agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a deal announced by President Trump, causing a temporary surge in market prices for uranium surrender outcomes.
Reports claim Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
On May 23, multiple US officials reported that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-backed deal, marking a major diplomatic development. This news caused a temporary increase in market optimism about uranium surrender by year-end.
Reports claim Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium stockpile in deal with Trump
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
The New York Times and other outlets reported that Iran agreed in principle to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a developing deal with the US, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and causing a temporary market rally.
US President Trump announces Iran's agreement to surrender enriched uranium in emerging deal
December 31 surges to 64%22%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader deal to end conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing market optimism about a YES outcome despite ongoing uncertainties about implementation.
Reports emerge Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials and media reported that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal, temporarily boosting market confidence despite lack of official Iranian confirmation.
Al Jazeera: Supreme Leader reinforces ban on uranium export
June 30 drops to 15%13%
Al Jazeera reported that Khamenei’s directive to keep the uranium inside Iran was reiterated, reinforcing market skepticism and helping keep the “June 30” probability low (around 15 %).
Supreme Leader Khamenei orders Iran’s enriched uranium not to leave the country
December 31 drops to 58%5%
Khamenei allegedly issued a directive prohibiting the export of the enriched uranium stockpile. The market’s “December 31” price fell from 63 % to 58 % on 23 April, reflecting renewed scepticism.
Iran’s Supreme Leader prohibits removal of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 42%21%
Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive forbidding the transfer of enriched uranium abroad, contradicting US President Trump's statements and complicating peace negotiations. This led to a decline in market confidence about uranium surrender.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside country
December 31 drops to 43%12%
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile should not be transferred abroad, reinforcing Iran’s hardline stance and complicating diplomatic efforts. This announcement further eroded market confidence, pulling Yes odds for uranium surrender down.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders uranium stockpile not to be sent abroad
December 31 dips to 43%3%
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile abroad, hardening Iran’s position and complicating negotiations with the U.S. This directive caused market confidence in uranium surrender to decline sharply.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, causing market participants to reduce confidence in uranium handover by year-end, reflected in price declines.
Iran's Supreme Leader directs against sending enriched uranium abroad amid US demands
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting US President Trump's demands for its surrender. This hardened Iran's stance and complicated negotiations, causing market skepticism about near-term uranium surrender.
Iran’s Supreme Leader issues directive prohibiting removal of enriched uranium
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that Iran’s enriched uranium should not be sent abroad, contradicting U.S. demands and complicating negotiations. This news dampened market optimism about uranium transfer abroad.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium to stay inside Iran
June 30 drops to 19%9%
Khamenei issued a directive that the enriched uranium stockpile must remain inside Iran, counter‑balancing U.S. demands and pulling the market down for all surrender dates.
Iran refuses to transfer enriched uranium abroad, complicating US negotiations
July 31 drops to 18%7%
Iran’s National Security Committee head declared Tehran will not transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, signaling a firm stance against U.S. demands and reducing market confidence in uranium surrender by mid-2026.
Trump says U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 rises to 25%4%
Trump announced the United States would seize or destroy Iran’s stockpile, a hard‑line statement that lifted the “June 30” price from roughly 21 % on May 21 to 25 % on May 24, reflecting renewed optimism for a surrender.
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 33%8%
President Trump stated the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium if necessary, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled peace talks. This statement increased market uncertainty and reflected the ongoing deadlock over uranium surrender.
Reports of Iran agreeing to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile to China
Reports emerged that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of a potential nuclear deal with the US. However, no official confirmation was made, and Iran later denied any such agreement, causing market uncertainty.
Iran's Supreme Leader draws red line over uranium in US nuclear talks
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly directed top officials to reject Washington's demand to transfer Iran's highly enriched uranium outside the country, causing a drop in near-term market expectations.
Supreme Leader orders uranium stockpile to stay inside Iran
June 30 dips to 11%4%
The Defense News piece reiterated Khamenei’s ban on export, reinforcing the narrative of Iranian intransigence and sustaining the low probabilities for early surrender dates across all contracts.
Trump vows US will retrieve or destroy Iran's uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 42%7%
President Trump publicly declared that the US intends to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, increasing pressure on Iran and supporting market expectations for a YES outcome. This statement was part of a broader strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Khamenei refuses to move Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid fragile peace talks
June 30 drops to 10%12%
Khamenei issued a directive that the stockpile must stay inside Iran. The decree reversed earlier optimism and drove the June‑30 market sharply down from 22 % on 2026‑05‑20 to 10 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bans export of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Khamenei publicly ordered that the near‑weapons‑grade uranium remain inside Iran, undercutting the earlier optimism and sending the “December 31” odds down again, reflected in the market’s fall from the April‑April peak to around 45 % by late May.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directs that enriched uranium must remain in Iran
December 31 drops to 35%10%
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of the enriched uranium stockpile from the country, presenting a major obstacle to U.S. demands.
Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA oversight
June 30 drops to 14%9%
Iran's UN mission stated there are no restrictions on its uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision, dampening hopes for a near-term deal to halt enrichment or surrender stockpiles.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bars uranium stockpile from leaving country
June 30 plunges to 11%29%
Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the uranium stockpile must stay inside Iran, directly contradicting the U.S. demand that it be removed. The news was reported by Reuters and amplified on social media, driving the market sharply down as traders saw the prospect of a surrender receding.
President Trump vows to seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 rises to 41%3%
President Donald Trump declared that the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile if necessary, signaling a hardline stance and increasing tensions. This statement underscored US demands and influenced market volatility around uranium surrender timelines.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bars uranium stockpile from leaving country
December 31 drops to 32%9%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of enriched uranium abroad, hardening Iran’s stance and contradicting US and Israeli demands. This announcement significantly reduced market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement by the end of 2026.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders uranium stockpile to remain in country
December 31 dips to 40%1%
Two senior Iranian officials reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile abroad, hardening Iran’s position amid US-Iran negotiations. This directive contradicted US demands and caused market skepticism about uranium surrender.
Khamenei Directs That Enriched Uranium Stockpile Must Stay in Iran
June 30 drops to 16%7%
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive stating that the country's enriched uranium stockpile must not leave the country, dealing a blow to US demands and lowering market expectations.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain in Iran
December 31 dips to 39%4%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile abroad, hardening Iran’s stance and complicating US demands for uranium surrender. This directive was reported by Reuters and widely covered, causing market skepticism about uranium transfer.
Supreme Leader Khamenei bans export of Iran’s uranium stockpile
July 31 drops to 14%14%
Khamenei ordered the stockpile stay inside Iran, a hardening signal that drove the July‑31 “Yes” probability to its lowest level.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile, reversing earlier claims of a surrender deal and causing a significant drop in Yes pricing across all outcomes.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
President Trump declared the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile if necessary, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled negotiations and reducing market optimism for voluntary surrender by May 31.
Iran reiterates refusal to transfer enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 14%28%
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism about near-term uranium surrender and causing market prices for May 31 surrender to drop further.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in peace proposal
December 31 rises to 46%4%
On May 19, 2026, Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace deal, which the US rejected, demanding uranium surrender to American custody. This offer was seen as insufficient and maintained market skepticism about uranium surrender by the deadlines.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
May 31 dips to 7%4%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of peace talks, which the US dismissed as insufficient since it demands uranium surrender to US custody, maintaining market uncertainty.
Putin offers to store Iran’s enriched uranium amid U.S.-Iran tensions
June 30 drops to 29%9%
President Putin offered to transport and store Iran’s enriched uranium, recalling the 2015 Russian custodianship. The proposal was taken as a positive step, lifting the June‑30 market temporarily.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands for a uranium hand‑over, causing the June‑30 market to slip as traders reassessed the likelihood of a surrender.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal
Iran offered to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Russia as part of a peace proposal, signaling a potential third-party solution that complicated U.S. demands for direct surrender.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium stockpile to Russia in peace offer
December 31 dips to 43%2%
Iran offered to transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, but U.S. officials dismissed the offer as insufficient, demanding custody instead.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
July 31 plunges to 18%17%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia instead of the US as part of peace talks, which the US dismissed as insufficient, maintaining uncertainty and lowering market confidence for US custody by mid-2026.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal offer
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
Iran offered to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, diverging from U.S. demands for direct surrender. The U.S. dismissed the offer as insufficient, maintaining demand for physical custody, which kept market optimism low for near-term surrender.
Iran denies any agreement to transfer enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 11%12%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman reiterated that the uranium stockpile would not be transferred anywhere, directly contradicting the emerging U.S. narrative. The denial caused a sharp pull‑back in market optimism, especially for the June‑30 contract.
US officials report Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran had agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, marking a significant diplomatic development. This announcement caused a rise in market prices for uranium surrender, reflecting increased optimism about a potential agreement, though formal verification and implementation remained uncertain.
Khamenei orders Iran’s enriched uranium to stay inside the country
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the enriched uranium must stay inside Iran. The announcement further eroded market confidence, pulling Yes odds for all three contracts down to the 30‑40 % band.
Iran’s Bagheri Kani says uranium not on negotiation agenda
June 30 drops to 11%9%
Bagheri Kani publicly stated that the uranium issue was not part of current negotiations, reinforcing market scepticism and causing the June‑30 price to fall further.
Iran’s Bagheri Kani says uranium stockpile off‑table in talks
July 31 drops to 23%12%
Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani reiterated that the uranium stockpile was not on the negotiation agenda, causing a second dip in the July‑31 “Yes” odds.
Iran’s Bagheri Kani says uranium stockpile is off‑table in talks
December 31 drops to 63%7%
Bagheri Kani told reporters in Moscow that the uranium stockpile was a red‑line and “not on the agenda.” The market’s “December 31” odds dropped from 70 % to 63 % the following day.
Iran’s Ali Bagheri Kani rejects talks over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 40%8%
Iran’s Deputy Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council stated that Iran is not prepared to negotiate over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as a red line and not part of current negotiations. This reinforced market doubts about uranium surrender in the near term.
Oman diplomat says Iran agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium
December 31 rises to 37%2%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated that Iran agreed in talks with the US never to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations. This statement suggested progress but did not confirm a public agreement to surrender uranium by March 31, 2026.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 21%10%
Iran’s foreign ministry publicly rejected any U.S. demand to hand over the stockpile, stating the material would stay in Iran. This denial caused a steep drop in Yes odds for the June‑30 contract, falling to a low of 21 % on May 12.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, hardening stance
December 31 rises to 46%4%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran’s hardline position and decreasing market confidence in a uranium handover by early deadlines.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 dips to 6%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, citing distrust of the US, which decreased market confidence in a uranium handover by the May 31 deadline.
Iran Threatens 90% Uranium Enrichment as Trump Rejects Peace Proposal
June 30 drops to 17%6%
Tensions escalated as Iran threatened to enrich uranium to weapons-grade 90% if attacked again, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal. This caused a drop in confidence for near-term agreements.
Iran offers to transfer some enriched uranium to third country but rejects dismantling nuclear facilities
December 31 jumps to 45%12%
Iran responded to a US peace proposal by offering to transfer part of its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, signaling partial concession, but rejected dismantling its nuclear program, causing mixed market reactions.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism in the market and causing a decrease in confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
US Defense Secretary warns Iran to surrender uranium or face seizure
June 30 drops to 22%8%
U.S. Defense Secretary warned Iran that failure to surrender its stockpile could lead to seizure or destruction, increasing market pessimism for early surrender dates and nudging the June‑30 price down.
US nears framework for Iran deal as Trump demands uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 47%7%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and the US intensified pressure for Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. Despite progress, key obstacles remained, and Iran was reviewing the US peace proposal, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 rises to 29%3%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling progress in negotiations. However, key obstacles remained, and skepticism persisted, limiting market gains for near-term surrender dates.
Brazilian President Lula presents 2010 Iran nuclear agreement to Trump
December 31 rises to 42%2%
Brazil’s President Lula handed U.S. President Trump the 2010 Brazil-Turkey-Iran nuclear agreement again, highlighting a diplomatic path for Iran’s nuclear program. This event briefly raised hopes for a diplomatic solution but did not lead to uranium surrender.
Trump announces Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, urges uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
President Trump declared Iran's agreement not to pursue nuclear weapons and emphasized the need for Iran to surrender enriched uranium, raising market hopes for a deal by December 31.
Trump downplays value of Iran's uranium while demanding its return
June 30 drops to 19%10%
President Trump made contradictory statements, dismissing the value of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as worthless while simultaneously insisting on its surrender.
Trump dismisses Iran’s uranium stockpile as worthless, then demands it back
June 30 dips to 10%4%
Trump’s contradictory remarks that Iran’s stockpile was “worthless” but must be taken back caused a steep decline in the “June 30” market, which fell from 14 % on May 1 to 10 % by June 9.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless, demands surrender
December 31 dips to 40%2%
President Trump publicly stated that Iran’s enriched uranium would either be turned over to the U.S. or destroyed in place, emphasizing U.S. demands. This statement increased market uncertainty and skepticism about Iran’s willingness to surrender uranium soon.
President Trump announces great progress toward a US-Iran agreement
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
President Trump declared significant progress toward a complete and final agreement with Iran, including nuclear issues and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement temporarily boosted market optimism about Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by year-end.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but insists on taking it back
May 31 drops to 6%12%
President Trump made contradictory statements dismissing the value of Iran's enriched uranium while simultaneously demanding its surrender, reflecting tensions in US policy and contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Trump says Iran’s enriched uranium is worthless but the U.S. will take it
December 31 dips to 45%2%
Trump dismissed the value of Iran’s uranium while insisting the United States must take possession. The mixed signal dampened optimism, contributing to a decline in Yes prices for the December‑31 market from the high‑70s back toward the 40 % range.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but demands its surrender
June 30 drops to 19%10%
President Trump publicly downplayed the value of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile while simultaneously insisting on its surrender, reflecting contradictory US policy signals that contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility for uranium surrender outcomes.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, U.S. officials say
June 30 jumps to 21%9%
U.S. officials reported that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched‑uranium stockpile. The news lifted the June‑30 contract as traders priced in a possible surrender before the end of June.
Iran rejects US demands for uranium surrender amid rising tensions
December 31 drops to 32%9%
Iran's National Security Commission rejected US demands for permanent cessation of uranium enrichment and handover of enriched uranium, signaling continued resistance and diplomatic stalemate. This firm stance contributed to further declines in market optimism about uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
Iran's refusal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract, signaling traders' abandonment of near-term surrender expectations.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for that deadline, reflecting diminished expectations for a near-term resolution. Traders shifted focus to later deadlines, anticipating a possible agreement after April.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 28%13%
Iran publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reversing earlier optimism and causing the June‑30 market to slide back toward lower odds.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 drops to 32%9%
Iran publicly refused to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence and prices for the April 30 contract. This hardened Iran's position and decreased market confidence in a uranium handover by early deadlines.
WSJ: Removing Iran’s uranium by April 30 would be unprecedented challenge
June 30 plunges to 23%19%
WSJ analysis highlighted the logistical difficulty of moving the stockpile by the April 30 deadline, causing the “June 30” market to slump sharply from 42 % to 23 % in the following days.
Iran nuclear negotiating team shake-up signals hardliner takeover
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was forced out as head of Iran’s nuclear delegation, replaced by hardliner Saeed Jalili, signaling a tougher stance in nuclear talks. This internal political shift reduced optimism for uranium surrender, contributing to market declines.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Putin offered Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, suggesting a potential third-party custodian role and increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, labeling them as non-starters. This firm stance decreased market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement by the end of 2026, pushing prices lower.
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
June 30 plunges to 33%27%
Iran issued a military warning over US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term uranium surrender agreement. No concrete diplomatic progress emerged, leading to a drop in market prices for uranium surrender by April 30 and June 30.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
July 31 plunges to 14%30%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson publicly rejected any U.S. demand to hand over the stockpile, driving the “Yes” percentages down across the three contracts, especially the July‑31 market.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
June 30 surges to 41%19%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium in a developing US‑Iran deal. The announcement boosted optimism for a June‑30 surrender, pushing the market up sharply.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 38%29%
Iran officially denied reaching any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting earlier reports and causing market skepticism. This denial led to a decrease in the likelihood of a surrender agreement, reflected in falling market prices.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 rises to 42%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, supporting market optimism for a uranium surrender agreement by December 31.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
December 31 drops to 38%5%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium was not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, leading to decreased market confidence in uranium surrender by end of 2026.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium, Trump says it no longer concerns him
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Iran officially rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, with Trump stating the issue no longer concerns him, causing market confidence to drop as the likelihood of a surrender agreement diminished.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 17%25%
Following earlier reports of a deal, Iran officially denied reaching any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This denial caused a sharp drop in market confidence, reflecting increased skepticism about Iran's willingness to comply with uranium handover demands.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 38%29%
Iran publicly refused to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence and prices for the April 30 contract.
President Trump expresses optimism about a better nuclear deal with Iran
December 31 rises to 41%2%
On April 20, 2026, President Trump stated he believed the ongoing nuclear deal negotiations with Iran would be better than the 2015 agreement, signaling some optimism but also uncertainty about the outcome, which influenced market sentiment.
IAEA, Russia, and US hold talks on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 47%8%
The IAEA, Russia, and the US engaged in discussions focused on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium from the damaged Isfahan site, indicating potential progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the uranium stockpile issue. This raised market expectations for a possible uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials reported Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting the December 31 market to 50.5% YES and signaling stronger market confidence in a resolution.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia could transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015, which was interpreted by markets as increasing the likelihood of Iran surrendering uranium by December 31, boosting optimism for a resolution.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Iran denied any agreement to hand over its stockpile, reinforcing market doubts and pushing the June‑30 contract down further.
Iran agrees in principle to hand over enriched uranium stockpile ahead of US talks
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Reports emerged that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, though the final recipient remained undecided, with potential recipients including Russia, the IAEA, or the US. This development increased market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
WSJ warns of unprecedented U.S. challenge to secure Iran’s uranium by April 30
June 30 drops to 33%12%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented logistical and military challenge. The story noted a 12‑point drop in the April‑30 market and a widening gap to the June‑30 contract, driving the market’s sharp decline for near‑term surrender dates.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad, calls it 'sacred'
December 31 plunges to 63%18%
Iran publicly rejected claims of agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad, dampening market optimism and causing a price decline across surrender deadlines.
Iran rejects uranium transfer amid US threats and naval blockade tensions
December 31 plunges to 38%22%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei publicly rejected any proposal to transfer enriched uranium abroad, calling it a non-starter and emphasizing Iran's sovereignty. This statement, coupled with US President Trump's threats and naval blockade, heightened tensions and reduced market optimism for uranium surrender by mid-2026.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 39%14%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei publicly denied U.S. President Trump's claim that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing that uranium transfer was never raised in negotiations. This hardened Iran's stance and caused a significant drop in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump says peace deal is very close as Iran rejects nuclear surrender claim
June 30 surges to 57%33%
President Trump claimed a peace deal was very close, but Tehran rejected the assertion that it was ready to surrender nuclear materials, highlighting ongoing friction.
Reports suggest Iran nominates Pakistan for uranium stockpile transfer
December 31 plunges to 42%21%
Al Arabiya reported that Iran nominated Pakistan as a potential country to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to help end the war, though no official confirmation was made. This raised hopes for a resolution but lacked official backing, causing some market fluctuations.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid U.S.-Iran tensions
December 31 surges to 47%22%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Moscow would transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, a move that briefly boosted market confidence in a resolution by December 31.
Iran publicly contradicts Trump's uranium surrender claims
December 31 plunges to 39%36%
Within hours of Trump's optimistic statements, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei rejected the idea of transferring its nuclear material to the United States.
Reports suggest progress in Iran uranium surrender talks, boosting market optimism
December 31 surges to 66%31%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced.
IAEA chief says bulk of Iran’s uranium likely hidden in Isfahan tunnels
December 31 surges to 63%38%
IAEA chief Grossi publicly stated that most of the stockpile is likely stored in Isfahan tunnels and that removal or dilution is essential. The comment raised hopes that a concrete disposal pathway could be negotiated, briefly lifting the Yes price for the December‑31 market.
U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
December 31 surges to 81%55%
Reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran were negotiating a deal involving the release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism and causing a price spike in the December 31 contract.
Wall Street Journal reports US faces unprecedented challenge to secure Iran uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would encounter in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that outcome.
Market optimism peaks on reports of potential uranium surrender deal
December 31 surges to 81%50%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium, describing it as 'nuclear dust,' which initially boosted the market's Yes pricing for all outcomes.
Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented U.S. challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 76%20%
A WSJ piece highlighted the logistical and military challenges of removing Iran’s uranium by the April 30 deadline, driving the April‑30 market down and widening the spread with the June‑30 contract.
US officials report Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 80%55%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism for a uranium surrender deal despite the lack of formal agreement or IAEA verification.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
June 30 surges to 55%27%
US officials said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched‑uranium stockpile. The news was interpreted as a concrete step toward surrender, lifting market odds for a “Yes” on the June‑30 contract.
Reports emerge of Iran agreeing in principle to surrender uranium stockpile under US framework
December 31 surges to 81%37%
Mid-April saw reports that Iran had agreed in principle to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a staged agreement with the US to end regional conflict. This news temporarily boosted market optimism about a potential deal, as it suggested progress in negotiations despite unresolved technical details.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to secure Iran uranium by April 2026
December 31 drops to 70%11%
The Wall Street Journal highlighted the logistical and military difficulties the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, which caused a significant drop in market optimism and prices for the April 30 deadline.
IAEA confirms damage to Iranian uranium enrichment plant in Natanz
December 31 surges to 81%48%
The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed damage to Iran's Natanz enrichment facility, raising concerns about Iran's nuclear capabilities and complicating verification efforts. This event contributed to market uncertainty about Iran's uranium stockpile and its willingness to surrender it.
Reports of Iran agreeing in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 67%34%
Reports emerged that Iran agreed in principle to relinquish its highly enriched uranium stockpile under a US-led framework aimed at ending regional conflict. This news boosted market confidence in a potential surrender deal, reflected in a peak in market prices around this date.
Iran publicly denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 39%42%
Hours after President Trump's announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei publicly denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium outside Iran, emphasizing the material's sacred status and rejecting U.S. claims. This contradiction caused market uncertainty and tempered earlier optimism.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%46%
President Trump announced on a televised interview that Iran had agreed to hand over its highly‑enriched uranium stockpile, a claim later echoed by Reuters. The statement sparked a sharp rise in Yes prices across all three settlement dates, most noticeably a jump to 81 % on April 17 for the December‑31 contract.
U.S. and Iran negotiate $20 bn frozen‑funds swap for uranium surrender
June 30 surges to 54%23%
U.S. and Iran entered advanced talks on a three‑page cash‑for‑uranium framework, linking the release of $20 billion in frozen assets to Tehran’s surrender of its enriched stockpile. The news gave traders hope of a deal, pushing Yes odds higher for the June‑30 contract.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%38%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, calling it “nuclear dust.” The announcement caused the market’s “December 31” probability to jump sharply, reaching the highest level of the period (81 %).
WSJ: Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented U.S. challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 44%32%
The Wall Street Journal highlighted the logistical challenges of a pre‑April 30 surrender, prompting a sharp drop in the April‑30 contract and a corresponding rise in the June‑30 contract.
President Trump claims Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%48%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough, which temporarily boosted market optimism despite lack of independent confirmation from Iran.
President Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%28%
President Donald Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough. This announcement caused a significant surge in market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, despite lack of immediate confirmation from Iran.
Trump says Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
December 31 surges to 70%30%
Trump stated the deal to end the Middle East conflict is largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to relinquish enriched uranium, which raised market expectations for a YES outcome despite unresolved details.
Reports of progress in Iran uranium surrender negotiations boost market optimism
December 31 surges to 65%25%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced. This optimism was driven by US officials indicating potential agreement terms and diplomatic efforts.
US-Iran negotiations include $20 billion frozen funds for uranium surrender
December 31 surges to 66%34%
Reports emerged of a proposed deal where the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, fueling market optimism and a price spike.
Trump claims Iran has largely negotiated uranium surrender deal
December 31 surges to 81%36%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum under which the enriched uranium stockpile would be surrendered, prompting a sharp rise in the market’s “Yes” price for all three deadline contracts.
Reports emerge of US-Iran $20 billion frozen funds-for-uranium deal
December 31 surges to 67%34%
Reports surfaced that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal involving $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile. This raised market optimism, causing price spikes in related contracts.
Market optimism peaks on hopes for Iran uranium surrender deal
December 31 surges to 76%34%
Market prices surged to highs around 76-81% on April 17, reflecting growing optimism about a potential agreement for Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This optimism was driven by diplomatic signals and speculation about progress in negotiations.
Trump claims Iran will hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%28%
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s uranium would be “immediately turned over” to the United States, a claim that implied a forthcoming surrender and spurred a sharp rally in the “December 31” market to a high of 81 %.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%54%
President Trump claimed Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market confidence significantly. However, Iran did not confirm this, leaving uncertainty.
Russian President Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 surges to 76%52%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a similar 2015 operation. This offer was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market confidence in a potential uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%42%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough. This announcement temporarily increased market optimism about a YES outcome for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 52%14%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
WSJ: Removing Iran’s uranium by April 30 would be unprecedented
June 30 plunges to 12%27%
A WSJ story highlighting the logistical difficulty of moving Iran’s stockpile by April 30 lowered confidence in the near‑term deadline, dragging the April‑30‑linked June‑30 contract down.
Trump vows U.S. will retrieve, likely destroy Iran's uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
President Trump declared the U.S. intention to retrieve and potentially destroy Iran's enriched uranium, increasing pressure on Iran and raising market expectations for uranium surrender by year-end.
US considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
December 31 surges to 68%32%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal involving the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism temporarily.
Trump says no ground troops needed to secure Iran’s uranium
December 31 jumps to 45%5%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium and that no U.S. ground troops would be necessary to secure it. This reinforced market optimism about a peaceful resolution and uranium transfer without military intervention.
US-Iran tensions rise amid logistical challenges to uranium surrender by April 30
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented challenge for the US, causing market optimism for the April 30 deadline to drop sharply due to operational and diplomatic difficulties.
Iran agrees in talks with US not to stockpile enriched uranium — Oman
December 31 jumps to 39%6%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reported that Iran agreed in talks with the US not to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations and raising hopes for a comprehensive deal within three months.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 14%33%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated U.S. demands for uranium surrender were non-starters, leading to a sharp decline in Yes pricing, particularly for the May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad
December 31 plunges to 39%36%
Hours after Trump's announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium outside Iran, emphasizing the material's sacred status and rejecting US claims. This contradiction caused market uncertainty and tempered the earlier optimism.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%41%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to hand over its store of enriched uranium, which he referred to as 'nuclear dust,' boosting market optimism for a deal.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%42%
President Trump announced that Iran is very close to a peace deal including surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism despite lack of Iranian confirmation and ongoing negotiation uncertainties.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
June 30 drops to 12%12%
The Wall Street Journal detailed logistical and military difficulties for the US to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, which further cooled market optimism and caused a price drop in the April 30 contract.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 33%20%
The WSJ detailed logistical and military challenges for the US to secure Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to market skepticism and a price drop for the April 30 outcome.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, though uncertainty remained about formalization and verification.
Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented US challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 55%33%
Wall Street Journal analysis highlighted logistical challenges to a April‑30 surrender, pulling market odds down for the earlier deadline and shifting focus to the June‑30 contract.
Iran official states no scenario to fully give up uranium enrichment for peace
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
A senior Iranian official publicly declared that Iran would not agree to completely cease uranium enrichment under any peace deal with the U.S., signaling a hardline stance that dampened market expectations for uranium surrender by April 30, 2026.
Renewed US-Iran talks spark optimism for nuclear deal
December 31 jumps to 41%8%
Reports emerged of imminent high-level US-Iran talks during a fragile ceasefire, with US Vice President JD Vance leading negotiations. This raised market expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough on Iran's nuclear program, causing a spike in the probability of uranium surrender by December 31.
US proposes 20-year suspension of Iran nuclear activity amid stalled talks
In mid-April, US Vice President JD Vance announced a proposal for a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear activity, but Iran countered with a shorter suspension offer, maintaining disputes over uranium stockpile surrender, which kept market optimism low.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid U.S.–Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 81%11%
Putin announced that Russia was ready to transport and store Iran’s enriched uranium, echoing the 2015 arrangement. The news lifted optimism and helped the market swing upward, contributing to the April 17 peak of 81 % Yes for the December‑31 contract.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 41%29%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, labeling the demands as non-starters. This firm stance decreased market confidence in an early surrender by April 30, 2026, reflected in falling prices for the December 31 contract.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of U.S.
December 31 plunges to 41%29%
Iran’s foreign minister said the transfer of enriched uranium was “not on the agenda” and cited a lack of trust in the United States. The declaration caused the market to tumble, reflected in the drop from 70 % on 2026‑04‑08 to 41 % on 2026‑04‑10 for the December‑31 contract.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman publicly rejected US demands to transfer enriched uranium abroad, citing distrust and national security concerns. This hardened stance decreased market confidence in a near-term uranium surrender, leading to price drops in related markets.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
December 31 drops to 40%13%
The Wall Street Journal detailed logistical and military hurdles for the US to secure Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, which caused a significant drop in market optimism and prices for the April 30 contract.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad
Iranian officials publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, calling the material 'sacred' and denying any agreement to transfer it, causing a sharp market correction.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
December 31 drops to 32%12%
The Wall Street Journal detailed operational and diplomatic difficulties for the US to secure Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 outcome.
Trump announces Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium in emerging U.S. deal
December 31 jumps to 41%9%
President Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium as part of a breakthrough deal, prompting a brief rally in the December‑31 market before the price corrected on later clarifications.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance that decreased market confidence in a near-term uranium handover. This rejection complicated diplomatic efforts and led to a drop in market prices for surrender by April and May deadlines.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 10%32%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium to the US was not on the agenda, citing distrust. This reinforced market skepticism about Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, leading to a drop in market prices for earlier deadlines.
White House says Iran indicated willingness to turn over enriched uranium stocks
White House press secretary stated Iran had indicated it would turn over its enriched uranium stocks, raising market hopes for a potential agreement and briefly supporting prices.
White House says Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to US
December 31 surges to 81%28%
The White House announced Iran's agreement to transfer enriched uranium, boosting market confidence temporarily, reflected in a price peak for the December 31 outcome.
Trump declares Iran will end uranium enrichment
December 31 surges to 41%15%
Trump announced on social media that Iran would end enrichment and work with the U.S. to remove the stockpile, lifting market optimism and sending the “December 31” price up from a low of 26 % on April 3 to 41 % on April 8.
White House claims Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to U.S.
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
The U.S. government announced Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile to American custody, boosting market confidence for a resolution by December 31.
White House says Iran has indicated it would turn over enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 41%16%
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Iran indicated a willingness to turn over its stocks of enriched uranium, which was a key priority for President Trump. This statement boosted market confidence in a resolution.
US Defense Secretary warns Iran to surrender uranium or face seizure
June 30 plunges to 24%18%
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran that the US would seize its enriched uranium stockpile if Iran did not surrender it, escalating tensions and impacting market expectations for uranium surrender by June 30 and later dates.
US demands Iran surrender enriched uranium or faces seizure
December 31 drops to 27%7%
US officials publicly demanded Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile or face seizure, escalating tensions. Iran rejected transfer demands, citing sovereignty and distrust, which caused market skepticism about imminent uranium surrender.
Iran and US announce temporary two-week ceasefire amid nuclear talks
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran and the United States announced a temporary ceasefire, raising hopes for progress in nuclear negotiations. However, the market remained cautious as key issues like uranium surrender were not resolved, leading to mixed price movements.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 plunges to 25%17%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a firm refusal that further dampened market expectations for a uranium handover by the end of 2026.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 22%20%
Reports emerged that Iran would not comply with the April 30, 2026 deadline to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, causing market prices for the April 30 contract to drop sharply as traders abandoned that timeline.
WSJ: Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented U.S. challenge by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 32%21%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran’s enriched uranium would be an “unprecedented challenge” for the United States, stressing logistical and military hurdles. The story coincided with the market’s sharp drop from 53 % to 32 % on 2026‑04‑04, driving the June‑30 contract lower.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran’s enriched uranium by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 32%21%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US would face in securing Iran’s enriched uranium by the April 30, 2026 deadline, causing market skepticism and a sharp drop in optimism for the April 30 deadline and near-term surrender dates.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, U.S. officials say
June 30 surges to 56%22%
U.S. officials announced that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile. The news lifted the June‑30 market, pushing the probability of a surrender higher for the longer‑term deadline.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 23%19%
Iran's refusal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract, reflecting diminished confidence in an early resolution. Traders shifted focus to later deadlines anticipating a possible future agreement.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
Reports indicated Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract and increased skepticism about an early resolution.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, causing market prices for the April 30 contract to drop sharply due to increased skepticism.
Market sharply reprices Iran uranium surrender chances after diplomatic setbacks
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
On March 31, 2026, the market for Iran surrendering enriched uranium by December 31 dropped sharply from 50% to near 33%, reflecting growing skepticism about a deal as diplomatic talks faltered and Iran maintained its hardline stance.
WSJ reports US faces unprecedented challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 26%16%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would face in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that deadline.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led traders to abandon the April 30 contract, sharply lowering its price and indicating reduced likelihood of surrender by that date.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei publicly rejected U.S. demands to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile. The hard‑line stance caused a sharp drop in the December‑31 market price, reflecting lowered confidence that Iran would agree to surrender before year‑end.
Iran publicly refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran's refusal to compromise on uranium surrender by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 outcome, reflecting skepticism about near-term uranium transfer.
Iran denies any agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran issued an official denial that it had reached any deal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting earlier speculation. The denial caused the market’s “December 31” probability to fall sharply from 53 % to 33 % the next day.
Market sharply reprices lower on skepticism about Iran uranium surrender by year-end
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
On March 31, the market for Iran surrendering enriched uranium by December 31 dropped sharply by 18.5 points from about 50% to 33%, reflecting a sudden loss of optimism. This move was driven by increased military escalation and doubts about the feasibility of a voluntary uranium surrender before year-end.
Analysts spot possible June‑30 Iran uranium surrender window
June 30 rises to 12%4%
Early March speculation that Iran might bargain for a June‑30 surrender caused the June‑30 market to rise from single‑digit levels toward the low‑teens.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting diminished confidence in an imminent agreement. This hardened stance indicated resilience rather than capitulation, causing traders to abandon the April 30 contract.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 27%26%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism in the market and causing a decrease in confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026. This denial was a significant setback for market optimism regarding uranium handover.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's firm refusal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market confidence for the April 30 outcome, reflecting traders' abandonment of near-term surrender expectations.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 21%21%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline caused a sharp drop in market prices for near-term surrender outcomes, reflecting increased skepticism about imminent uranium transfer agreements.
Iran signals willingness to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile to third country
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Reports emerged that Iran was considering transferring part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing nuclear negotiations. This raised market hopes for a potential uranium surrender deal, influencing early market pricing.
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