Skip to main content
icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

icon for Iran leadership change by...?
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$23,176,608 Vol.

Aug 15, 2026
Polymarket

$23,176,608 Vol.

Polymarket

August 15

$14,481 Vol.

2%

August 22

$2,220 Vol.

2%

August 31

$1,062,977 Vol.

4%

September 30

$415,428 Vol.

8%

October 31

$6,665 Vol.

12%

November 30

$7,797 Vol.

16%

December 31

$3,909,084 Vol.

23%

June 30, 2027

$211,790 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, triggered Iran's formal succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid internal transition consolidated power with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and hard-line elements, reducing near-term instability risks and shifting trader focus toward longer horizons. Current odds favor June 30, 2027, as the leading outcome, reflecting elite alignments, Mojtaba's institutional networks, and the regime's demonstrated continuity amid ongoing regional tensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still influence probabilities for additional shifts before mid-2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,176,608
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, triggered Iran's formal succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. This rapid internal transition consolidated power with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and hard-line elements, reducing near-term instability risks and shifting trader focus toward longer horizons. Current odds favor June 30, 2027, as the leading outcome, reflecting elite alignments, Mojtaba's institutional networks, and the regime's demonstrated continuity amid ongoing regional tensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could still influence probabilities for additional shifts before mid-2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,176,608
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

4%
icon for US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%
icon for Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

7%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 32%, followed by "December 31" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $23.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.