Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens, confirming trader consensus around a sub-5% victory. Late polls showed the candidates statistically tied after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew, turning the contest into a clear progressive-versus-moderate test in a high-turnout race that featured record spending. El-Sayed’s grassroots support and criticism of party establishment figures helped offset Stevens’ advertising edge and institutional backing, producing one of the closest Senate primary finishes in recent cycles. Final certification or minor vote-count adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a wider margin, though current tallies make shifts beyond 5% highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 15–20% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
El-Sayed 20–25% <1%
$207,520 Vol.
$207,520 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
99%
Stevens <5%
<1%
Stevens 5–10%
<1%
Stevens 10–15%
<1%
Stevens 15%+
<1%
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 15–20% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
El-Sayed 20–25% <1%
$207,520 Vol.
$207,520 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
$11,761 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
$10,049 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
$24,586 Vol.
1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
$51,744 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
$58,149 Vol.
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
$20,311 Vol.
99%
Stevens <5%
$19,237 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 5–10%
$6,731 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 10–15%
$3,977 Vol.
<1%
Stevens 15%+
$976 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens, confirming trader consensus around a sub-5% victory. Late polls showed the candidates statistically tied after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew, turning the contest into a clear progressive-versus-moderate test in a high-turnout race that featured record spending. El-Sayed’s grassroots support and criticism of party establishment figures helped offset Stevens’ advertising edge and institutional backing, producing one of the closest Senate primary finishes in recent cycles. Final certification or minor vote-count adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a wider margin, though current tallies make shifts beyond 5% highly unlikely.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$207,520End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens, confirming trader consensus around a sub-5% victory. Late polls showed the candidates statistically tied after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew, turning the contest into a clear progressive-versus-moderate test in a high-turnout race that featured record spending. El-Sayed’s grassroots support and criticism of party establishment figures helped offset Stevens’ advertising edge and institutional backing, producing one of the closest Senate primary finishes in recent cycles. Final certification or minor vote-count adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a wider margin, though current tallies make shifts beyond 5% highly unlikely.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$207,520End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary by a margin of roughly one percentage point over Rep. Haley Stevens, confirming trader consensus around a sub-5% victory. Late polls showed the candidates statistically tied after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew, turning the contest into a clear progressive-versus-moderate test in a high-turnout race that featured record spending. El-Sayed’s grassroots support and criticism of party establishment figures helped offset Stevens’ advertising edge and institutional backing, producing one of the closest Senate primary finishes in recent cycles. Final certification or minor vote-count adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a wider margin, though current tallies make shifts beyond 5% highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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