Bola Tinubu holds the leading position in the 2027 Nigerian presidential race at 71.5% implied probability, supported by the APC's control of most state governments, National Assembly majorities, and recent forecasts projecting victories in around 20 states. INEC's publication of the final candidate list in mid-September confirmed Tinubu as the APC nominee alongside challengers including Atiku Abubakar on the ADC ticket and Peter Obi on the NDC ticket. APC officials and analysts have highlighted Tinubu's governing record, rising foreign reserves above $54 billion, and debt reductions as strengthening his case, while noting opposition fragmentation across multiple platforms. Peter Obi trails at 24%, consistent with projections of fewer states and the challenges of a divided field, with lower-priced names reflecting limited structural backing. The January 16, 2027, election date provides the resolution timeline, with trader pricing aligning to these organizational and economic factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBola Tinubu 72%
Peter Obi 24%
Omoyele Sowore <1%
Rabiu Kwankwaso <1%
$128,039 Vol.
$128,039 Vol.
Bola Tinubu
72%
Peter Obi
24%
Omoyele Sowore
<1%
Rabiu Kwankwaso
<1%
Rotimi Amaechi
<1%
Bola Tinubu 72%
Peter Obi 24%
Omoyele Sowore <1%
Rabiu Kwankwaso <1%
$128,039 Vol.
$128,039 Vol.
Bola Tinubu
72%
Peter Obi
24%
Omoyele Sowore
<1%
Rabiu Kwankwaso
<1%
Rotimi Amaechi
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Bola Tinubu holds the leading position in the 2027 Nigerian presidential race at 71.5% implied probability, supported by the APC's control of most state governments, National Assembly majorities, and recent forecasts projecting victories in around 20 states. INEC's publication of the final candidate list in mid-September confirmed Tinubu as the APC nominee alongside challengers including Atiku Abubakar on the ADC ticket and Peter Obi on the NDC ticket. APC officials and analysts have highlighted Tinubu's governing record, rising foreign reserves above $54 billion, and debt reductions as strengthening his case, while noting opposition fragmentation across multiple platforms. Peter Obi trails at 24%, consistent with projections of fewer states and the challenges of a divided field, with lower-priced names reflecting limited structural backing. The January 16, 2027, election date provides the resolution timeline, with trader pricing aligning to these organizational and economic factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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