The near-certainty reflected in current trader consensus stems from the absence of any verifiable political, legal, or personal developments that would force or prompt an early presidential exit before the August 31 deadline. With roughly twelve days remaining, structural barriers including the lack of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or documented health events make rapid change improbable. Historical patterns show presidential departures outside elections are rare and typically require extended processes or unforeseen crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency, unprecedented scandal triggering resignation, or unforeseen constitutional trigger, though none appear imminent based on public information.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$1,783,600 Vol.
$1,783,600 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$1,783,600 Vol.
$1,783,600 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certainty reflected in current trader consensus stems from the absence of any verifiable political, legal, or personal developments that would force or prompt an early presidential exit before the August 31 deadline. With roughly twelve days remaining, structural barriers including the lack of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or documented health events make rapid change improbable. Historical patterns show presidential departures outside elections are rare and typically require extended processes or unforeseen crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency, unprecedented scandal triggering resignation, or unforeseen constitutional trigger, though none appear imminent based on public information.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,783,600End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certainty reflected in current trader consensus stems from the absence of any verifiable political, legal, or personal developments that would force or prompt an early presidential exit before the August 31 deadline. With roughly twelve days remaining, structural barriers including the lack of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or documented health events make rapid change improbable. Historical patterns show presidential departures outside elections are rare and typically require extended processes or unforeseen crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency, unprecedented scandal triggering resignation, or unforeseen constitutional trigger, though none appear imminent based on public information.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,783,600End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certainty reflected in current trader consensus stems from the absence of any verifiable political, legal, or personal developments that would force or prompt an early presidential exit before the August 31 deadline. With roughly twelve days remaining, structural barriers including the lack of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or documented health events make rapid change improbable. Historical patterns show presidential departures outside elections are rare and typically require extended processes or unforeseen crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency, unprecedented scandal triggering resignation, or unforeseen constitutional trigger, though none appear imminent based on public information.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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