Trump’s nomination and Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, replacing Jerome Powell, anchors the 92.5% market-implied odds against any 2026 firing attempt. Recent developments show the president publicly praising Warsh, granting operational space, and describing their interactions as constructive even as the Fed holds rates steady or signals potential hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Trader consensus reflects Warsh’s repeated assertions of monetary-policy independence and the absence of public clashes or removal signals through early August. A realistic challenge could emerge if inflation reaccelerates and forces tighter policy that conflicts with administration growth priorities, testing the current alignment between the White House and the central bank.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s nomination and Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, replacing Jerome Powell, anchors the 92.5% market-implied odds against any 2026 firing attempt. Recent developments show the president publicly praising Warsh, granting operational space, and describing their interactions as constructive even as the Fed holds rates steady or signals potential hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Trader consensus reflects Warsh’s repeated assertions of monetary-policy independence and the absence of public clashes or removal signals through early August. A realistic challenge could emerge if inflation reaccelerates and forces tighter policy that conflicts with administration growth priorities, testing the current alignment between the White House and the central bank.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,421End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s nomination and Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, replacing Jerome Powell, anchors the 92.5% market-implied odds against any 2026 firing attempt. Recent developments show the president publicly praising Warsh, granting operational space, and describing their interactions as constructive even as the Fed holds rates steady or signals potential hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Trader consensus reflects Warsh’s repeated assertions of monetary-policy independence and the absence of public clashes or removal signals through early August. A realistic challenge could emerge if inflation reaccelerates and forces tighter policy that conflicts with administration growth priorities, testing the current alignment between the White House and the central bank.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,421End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s nomination and Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, replacing Jerome Powell, anchors the 92.5% market-implied odds against any 2026 firing attempt. Recent developments show the president publicly praising Warsh, granting operational space, and describing their interactions as constructive even as the Fed holds rates steady or signals potential hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Trader consensus reflects Warsh’s repeated assertions of monetary-policy independence and the absence of public clashes or removal signals through early August. A realistic challenge could emerge if inflation reaccelerates and forces tighter policy that conflicts with administration growth priorities, testing the current alignment between the White House and the central bank.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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