Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,475End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,475End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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