Recent US-Iran tensions have tightened energy markets after the June 2026 temporary General License X expired on August 21 without extension. That 60-day waiver, tied to a memorandum of understanding, had briefly authorized dollar-denominated Iranian oil sales, maritime services, and limited US imports in exchange for commitments on IAEA access and Strait of Hormuz transit. As of September 2026, a renewed naval blockade has cut Iranian crude loadings to roughly 220,000–260,000 barrels per day—more than 80 percent below earlier levels—stranding inventories and forcing steeper discounts to China. This supply squeeze has supported non-Iranian Gulf exports while lifting regional crude premiums. Traders are monitoring any resumption of Switzerland-style talks, verified nuclear concessions, or policy shifts that could prompt fresh OFAC waivers before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$347,348 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
4%
October 31
15%
$347,348 Vol.
September 30
$12,810 Vol.
4%
October 31
$4,268 Vol.
15%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent US-Iran tensions have tightened energy markets after the June 2026 temporary General License X expired on August 21 without extension. That 60-day waiver, tied to a memorandum of understanding, had briefly authorized dollar-denominated Iranian oil sales, maritime services, and limited US imports in exchange for commitments on IAEA access and Strait of Hormuz transit. As of September 2026, a renewed naval blockade has cut Iranian crude loadings to roughly 220,000–260,000 barrels per day—more than 80 percent below earlier levels—stranding inventories and forcing steeper discounts to China. This supply squeeze has supported non-Iranian Gulf exports while lifting regional crude premiums. Traders are monitoring any resumption of Switzerland-style talks, verified nuclear concessions, or policy shifts that could prompt fresh OFAC waivers before year-end deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$347,348End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent US-Iran tensions have tightened energy markets after the June 2026 temporary General License X expired on August 21 without extension. That 60-day waiver, tied to a memorandum of understanding, had briefly authorized dollar-denominated Iranian oil sales, maritime services, and limited US imports in exchange for commitments on IAEA access and Strait of Hormuz transit. As of September 2026, a renewed naval blockade has cut Iranian crude loadings to roughly 220,000–260,000 barrels per day—more than 80 percent below earlier levels—stranding inventories and forcing steeper discounts to China. This supply squeeze has supported non-Iranian Gulf exports while lifting regional crude premiums. Traders are monitoring any resumption of Switzerland-style talks, verified nuclear concessions, or policy shifts that could prompt fresh OFAC waivers before year-end deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$347,348End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran tensions have tightened energy markets after the June 2026 temporary General License X expired on August 21 without extension. That 60-day waiver, tied to a memorandum of understanding, had briefly authorized dollar-denominated Iranian oil sales, maritime services, and limited US imports in exchange for commitments on IAEA access and Strait of Hormuz transit. As of September 2026, a renewed naval blockade has cut Iranian crude loadings to roughly 220,000–260,000 barrels per day—more than 80 percent below earlier levels—stranding inventories and forcing steeper discounts to China. This supply squeeze has supported non-Iranian Gulf exports while lifting regional crude premiums. Traders are monitoring any resumption of Switzerland-style talks, verified nuclear concessions, or policy shifts that could prompt fresh OFAC waivers before year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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