Nicolás Maduro holds an 82.3% implied probability as Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026 because traders view Chavista institutional continuity, military loyalty, and control of the National Assembly and high court as outweighing his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during Operation Absolute Resolve. Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as acting president days later, sits at 9.5% amid ongoing U.S. diplomatic engagement, partial sanctions relief, and negotiations with opposition factions. María Corina Machado and other opposition figures remain below 3% due to fragmented influence, the absence of scheduled elections before late 2026, and structural barriers to power transfer. Recent catalysts include Maduro's June 2027 trial date on U.S. charges, limited political prisoner releases, and post-earthquake stabilization efforts that have preserved regime structures rather than enabling rapid opposition gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State 1.3%
$95,730,033 Vol.
$95,730,033 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State 1.3%
$95,730,033 Vol.
$95,730,033 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,750,312 Vol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,766,948 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,500 Vol.
3%
No Head of State
$1,514,739 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,213,848 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,088,492 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$816,558 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,163,327 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,975,619 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,633,651 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,122,212 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,399,516 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,175,582 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,801,243 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,751,408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an 82.3% implied probability as Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026 because traders view Chavista institutional continuity, military loyalty, and control of the National Assembly and high court as outweighing his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during Operation Absolute Resolve. Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as acting president days later, sits at 9.5% amid ongoing U.S. diplomatic engagement, partial sanctions relief, and negotiations with opposition factions. María Corina Machado and other opposition figures remain below 3% due to fragmented influence, the absence of scheduled elections before late 2026, and structural barriers to power transfer. Recent catalysts include Maduro's June 2027 trial date on U.S. charges, limited political prisoner releases, and post-earthquake stabilization efforts that have preserved regime structures rather than enabling rapid opposition gains.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,730,033End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an 82.3% implied probability as Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026 because traders view Chavista institutional continuity, military loyalty, and control of the National Assembly and high court as outweighing his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during Operation Absolute Resolve. Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as acting president days later, sits at 9.5% amid ongoing U.S. diplomatic engagement, partial sanctions relief, and negotiations with opposition factions. María Corina Machado and other opposition figures remain below 3% due to fragmented influence, the absence of scheduled elections before late 2026, and structural barriers to power transfer. Recent catalysts include Maduro's June 2027 trial date on U.S. charges, limited political prisoner releases, and post-earthquake stabilization efforts that have preserved regime structures rather than enabling rapid opposition gains.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,730,033End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro holds an 82.3% implied probability as Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026 because traders view Chavista institutional continuity, military loyalty, and control of the National Assembly and high court as outweighing his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during Operation Absolute Resolve. Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as acting president days later, sits at 9.5% amid ongoing U.S. diplomatic engagement, partial sanctions relief, and negotiations with opposition factions. María Corina Machado and other opposition figures remain below 3% due to fragmented influence, the absence of scheduled elections before late 2026, and structural barriers to power transfer. Recent catalysts include Maduro's June 2027 trial date on U.S. charges, limited political prisoner releases, and post-earthquake stabilization efforts that have preserved regime structures rather than enabling rapid opposition gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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