**Recent Kremlin statements and a September 8, 2026, Trump-Putin phone call have driven trader positioning toward China as the leading venue.** Russian officials, including Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov and spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping are all expected at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, with explicit discussion of a possible bilateral or trilateral meeting on the sidelines. Both leaders plan to attend, and Moscow has signaled it will seek such engagements if the opportunity arises. This diplomatic channel, building on prior envoy contacts, has elevated China’s implied probability to 60.5% among traders. The 30.5% chance assigned to no meeting by year-end reflects remaining uncertainty over final attendance confirmations, scheduling details, and any last-minute shifts tied to Ukraine-related diplomacy. Low probabilities for the United States, Russia, Gulf states, or other locations align with the absence of announced alternatives or comparable high-level forums in the remainder of 2026. Traders are pricing the APEC platform as the clearest near-term catalyst for the next in-person encounter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina 61%
No meeting by December 31 31%
United States 2.8%
Gulf country 2.6%
$1,032,674 Vol.
$1,032,674 Vol.
China
61%
No meeting by December 31
31%
United States
3%
Gulf country
3%
Russia
2%
Turkey
1%
Belarus
1%
Other
1%
Switzerland
1%
Japan
1%
Finland
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
China 61%
No meeting by December 31 31%
United States 2.8%
Gulf country 2.6%
$1,032,674 Vol.
$1,032,674 Vol.
China
61%
No meeting by December 31
31%
United States
3%
Gulf country
3%
Russia
2%
Turkey
1%
Belarus
1%
Other
1%
Switzerland
1%
Japan
1%
Finland
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Kremlin statements and a September 8, 2026, Trump-Putin phone call have driven trader positioning toward China as the leading venue.** Russian officials, including Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov and spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping are all expected at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, with explicit discussion of a possible bilateral or trilateral meeting on the sidelines. Both leaders plan to attend, and Moscow has signaled it will seek such engagements if the opportunity arises. This diplomatic channel, building on prior envoy contacts, has elevated China’s implied probability to 60.5% among traders. The 30.5% chance assigned to no meeting by year-end reflects remaining uncertainty over final attendance confirmations, scheduling details, and any last-minute shifts tied to Ukraine-related diplomacy. Low probabilities for the United States, Russia, Gulf states, or other locations align with the absence of announced alternatives or comparable high-level forums in the remainder of 2026. Traders are pricing the APEC platform as the clearest near-term catalyst for the next in-person encounter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions