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icon for Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

icon for Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Polymarket

$2,334,020 Vol.

Polymarket

$2,334,020 Vol.

icon for Democratic

Democratic

$1,161,314 Vol.

65%

icon for Republican

Republican

$1,172,706 Vol.

35%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Democratic traders hold a clear edge in the 2028 presidential election market, reflecting the open-seat dynamics after the 2024 Republican victory and term limits on the current president. Recent developments, including the administration’s involvement in the Iran conflict, softening approval ratings, trade tensions, and elevated energy costs, have weighed on Republican positioning ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Those contests are viewed as the first major test of party strength and could further shift probabilities depending on congressional outcomes. On the Democratic side, an open primary field featuring governors and senators has allowed multiple candidates to consolidate support without a dominant frontrunner, sustaining the party’s implied advantage in the current trader consensus.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$2,334,020
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Democratic traders hold a clear edge in the 2028 presidential election market, reflecting the open-seat dynamics after the 2024 Republican victory and term limits on the current president. Recent developments, including the administration’s involvement in the Iran conflict, softening approval ratings, trade tensions, and elevated energy costs, have weighed on Republican positioning ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Those contests are viewed as the first major test of party strength and could further shift probabilities depending on congressional outcomes. On the Democratic side, an open primary field featuring governors and senators has allowed multiple candidates to consolidate support without a dominant frontrunner, sustaining the party’s implied advantage in the current trader consensus.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$2,334,020
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democratic" at 65%, followed by "Republican" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is "Democratic" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.