Recent primaries have finalized candidate fields across key battlegrounds, sharpening focus on a handful of Senate contests projected as toss-ups by aggregators like RealClearPolitics and forecasters. Open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire, combined with retirements and candidate switches such as in Maine, have tightened several races amid a narrow path for Democrats to net the four seats needed for majority control. Polling shows close margins in Maine and Michigan, while states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas feature competitive dynamics influenced by incumbency advantages, state partisan leans, and turnout patterns. Upcoming events include Delaware's final primary and the November general election, where voter mobilization in these battlegrounds will determine which contests finish within five points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$61,959 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
84%
Kansas
74%
Alaska
70%
Iowa
61%
Ohio (Special)
57%
Michigan
54%
Maine
60%
New Hampshire
68%
Nebraska
41%
South Carolina
40%
Georgia
28%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
23%
North Carolina
16%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
11%
Virginia
6%
Colorado
4%
$61,959 Vol.
Texas
$7,129 Vol.
84%
Kansas
$507 Vol.
74%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
70%
Iowa
$5,606 Vol.
61%
Ohio (Special)
$3,866 Vol.
57%
Michigan
$2,675 Vol.
54%
Maine
$1,020 Vol.
60%
New Hampshire
$2,326 Vol.
68%
Nebraska
$3,630 Vol.
41%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
40%
Georgia
$1,383 Vol.
28%
Florida (Special)
$2,355 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,710 Vol.
23%
North Carolina
$5,544 Vol.
16%
New Mexico
$6,665 Vol.
12%
Montana
$2,759 Vol.
11%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
6%
Colorado
$2,543 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primaries have finalized candidate fields across key battlegrounds, sharpening focus on a handful of Senate contests projected as toss-ups by aggregators like RealClearPolitics and forecasters. Open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire, combined with retirements and candidate switches such as in Maine, have tightened several races amid a narrow path for Democrats to net the four seats needed for majority control. Polling shows close margins in Maine and Michigan, while states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas feature competitive dynamics influenced by incumbency advantages, state partisan leans, and turnout patterns. Upcoming events include Delaware's final primary and the November general election, where voter mobilization in these battlegrounds will determine which contests finish within five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$61,959End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primaries have finalized candidate fields across key battlegrounds, sharpening focus on a handful of Senate contests projected as toss-ups by aggregators like RealClearPolitics and forecasters. Open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire, combined with retirements and candidate switches such as in Maine, have tightened several races amid a narrow path for Democrats to net the four seats needed for majority control. Polling shows close margins in Maine and Michigan, while states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas feature competitive dynamics influenced by incumbency advantages, state partisan leans, and turnout patterns. Upcoming events include Delaware's final primary and the November general election, where voter mobilization in these battlegrounds will determine which contests finish within five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$61,959End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent primaries have finalized candidate fields across key battlegrounds, sharpening focus on a handful of Senate contests projected as toss-ups by aggregators like RealClearPolitics and forecasters. Open seats in North Carolina, Michigan, and New Hampshire, combined with retirements and candidate switches such as in Maine, have tightened several races amid a narrow path for Democrats to net the four seats needed for majority control. Polling shows close margins in Maine and Michigan, while states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas feature competitive dynamics influenced by incumbency advantages, state partisan leans, and turnout patterns. Upcoming events include Delaware's final primary and the November general election, where voter mobilization in these battlegrounds will determine which contests finish within five points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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