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icon for WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner

$11,886 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,886 Vol.

icon for Brad Smith

Brad Smith

$4,949 Vol.

93%

icon for Amanda Bell

Amanda Bell

$6,937 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Smith's commanding position in the WI-06 Democratic primary stems from superior fundraising of roughly $155,000 compared to Amanda Bell's $35,000, multiple labor endorsements including the Wisconsin Education Association and United Auto Workers, and his background as a National Guard veteran and local businessman. Several early entrants withdrew and backed him, consolidating support in a district long held by Republicans. With the August 11 primary just days away, traders' implied probability reflects these structural advantages and limited time for shifts. A late scandal, unusually high Bell turnout among specific voter blocs, or unforeseen procedural issues could still alter the outcome before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,886
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Smith's commanding position in the WI-06 Democratic primary stems from superior fundraising of roughly $155,000 compared to Amanda Bell's $35,000, multiple labor endorsements including the Wisconsin Education Association and United Auto Workers, and his background as a National Guard veteran and local businessman. Several early entrants withdrew and backed him, consolidating support in a district long held by Republicans. With the August 11 primary just days away, traders' implied probability reflects these structural advantages and limited time for shifts. A late scandal, unusually high Bell turnout among specific voter blocs, or unforeseen procedural issues could still alter the outcome before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,886
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Smith" at 93%, followed by "Amanda Bell" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Smith" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Amanda Bell" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.