Trader consensus reflects the absence of active negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the remaining three weeks before August 31. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state, a threshold not met in recent diplomacy, while discussions with Syria and Lebanon remain preliminary amid ongoing regional tensions. Earlier expansions involving Kazakhstan and Somaliland occurred well before the current window, and U.S. efforts in 2026 to link further accessions to an Iran agreement produced limited follow-through. Diplomatic formalization typically requires extended preparation, public commitments, and coordinated announcements that exceed the short timeline. A late breakthrough in confidential talks involving a smaller state could theoretically shift the outcome, though no verifiable indicators support such a development before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$51,123 Vol.
$51,123 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
2% chance
$51,123 Vol.
$51,123 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of active negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the remaining three weeks before August 31. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state, a threshold not met in recent diplomacy, while discussions with Syria and Lebanon remain preliminary amid ongoing regional tensions. Earlier expansions involving Kazakhstan and Somaliland occurred well before the current window, and U.S. efforts in 2026 to link further accessions to an Iran agreement produced limited follow-through. Diplomatic formalization typically requires extended preparation, public commitments, and coordinated announcements that exceed the short timeline. A late breakthrough in confidential talks involving a smaller state could theoretically shift the outcome, though no verifiable indicators support such a development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$51,123End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of active negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the remaining three weeks before August 31. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state, a threshold not met in recent diplomacy, while discussions with Syria and Lebanon remain preliminary amid ongoing regional tensions. Earlier expansions involving Kazakhstan and Somaliland occurred well before the current window, and U.S. efforts in 2026 to link further accessions to an Iran agreement produced limited follow-through. Diplomatic formalization typically requires extended preparation, public commitments, and coordinated announcements that exceed the short timeline. A late breakthrough in confidential talks involving a smaller state could theoretically shift the outcome, though no verifiable indicators support such a development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$51,123End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the absence of active negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the remaining three weeks before August 31. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state, a threshold not met in recent diplomacy, while discussions with Syria and Lebanon remain preliminary amid ongoing regional tensions. Earlier expansions involving Kazakhstan and Somaliland occurred well before the current window, and U.S. efforts in 2026 to link further accessions to an Iran agreement produced limited follow-through. Diplomatic formalization typically requires extended preparation, public commitments, and coordinated announcements that exceed the short timeline. A late breakthrough in confidential talks involving a smaller state could theoretically shift the outcome, though no verifiable indicators support such a development before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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