The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through leadership decapitation, sustained military conflict with the US and Israel, and major domestic protests in early 2026 underpins the 92.5% trader consensus that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 strikes, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly with minimal military defections and nationalist counter-mobilization that stabilized core institutions like the IRGC and Guardian Council. Heavy crackdowns suppressed widespread January protests across all provinces, while ongoing economic strain from sanctions, Hormuz blockade effects, and currency weakness has produced only fragmented labor and pension actions in September 2026 rather than coordinated regime-threatening unrest. Traders price in this institutional continuity and security apparatus control as barriers to rapid collapse, though escalation in external pressure or renewed mass mobilization before year-end remain the primary variables that could shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8% chance
$25,896,563 Vol.
$25,896,563 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$25,896,563 Vol.
$25,896,563 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through leadership decapitation, sustained military conflict with the US and Israel, and major domestic protests in early 2026 underpins the 92.5% trader consensus that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 strikes, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly with minimal military defections and nationalist counter-mobilization that stabilized core institutions like the IRGC and Guardian Council. Heavy crackdowns suppressed widespread January protests across all provinces, while ongoing economic strain from sanctions, Hormuz blockade effects, and currency weakness has produced only fragmented labor and pension actions in September 2026 rather than coordinated regime-threatening unrest. Traders price in this institutional continuity and security apparatus control as barriers to rapid collapse, though escalation in external pressure or renewed mass mobilization before year-end remain the primary variables that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,896,563End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through leadership decapitation, sustained military conflict with the US and Israel, and major domestic protests in early 2026 underpins the 92.5% trader consensus that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 strikes, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly with minimal military defections and nationalist counter-mobilization that stabilized core institutions like the IRGC and Guardian Council. Heavy crackdowns suppressed widespread January protests across all provinces, while ongoing economic strain from sanctions, Hormuz blockade effects, and currency weakness has produced only fragmented labor and pension actions in September 2026 rather than coordinated regime-threatening unrest. Traders price in this institutional continuity and security apparatus control as barriers to rapid collapse, though escalation in external pressure or renewed mass mobilization before year-end remain the primary variables that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,896,563End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through leadership decapitation, sustained military conflict with the US and Israel, and major domestic protests in early 2026 underpins the 92.5% trader consensus that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 strikes, yet succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly with minimal military defections and nationalist counter-mobilization that stabilized core institutions like the IRGC and Guardian Council. Heavy crackdowns suppressed widespread January protests across all provinces, while ongoing economic strain from sanctions, Hormuz blockade effects, and currency weakness has produced only fragmented labor and pension actions in September 2026 rather than coordinated regime-threatening unrest. Traders price in this institutional continuity and security apparatus control as barriers to rapid collapse, though escalation in external pressure or renewed mass mobilization before year-end remain the primary variables that could shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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