Recent U.S.-Iran tensions, including joint airstrikes with Israel from February to May 2026 and subsequent naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, have centered on missile programs, nuclear limits, and sanctions relief rather than ground forces. The June memorandum of understanding, mediated by Pakistan and others, produced a ceasefire and sanctions easing framework that expired in mid-August without extension, prompting Iranian threats of an offensive posture and U.S. statements ruling out prolongation. Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to no invasion before 2027, reflecting the high costs of occupation, continued preference for air and maritime pressure, active diplomatic channels, and absence of official preparations or deployments for territorial control. Scheduled talks and regional dynamics could still shift conditions before year-end.