Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges, including major joint strikes with Israel in February 2026 that targeted nuclear and missile sites, have given way to a fragile ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and shipping access. Ongoing tensions involve Iranian attacks on vessels, U.S. naval blockades, and limited retaliatory strikes, yet the Trump administration has prioritized diplomacy, including talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan, over escalation to ground operations. With only months remaining before 2027 and active negotiations underway, trader consensus reflected in the 82.5% No price assigns low probability to a full-scale U.S. invasion, consistent with historical reluctance for large ground commitments absent direct existential threats.