Jannik Sinner holds the strongest position in the 2026 men’s US Open market at 52.5% implied probability, driven by his dominant 2026 campaign that includes a 44-3 record, multiple Masters 1000 titles, and a Wimbledon defense. His hard-court consistency and overall form create a significant edge over the field on the fast surfaces at Flushing Meadows. Carlos Alcaraz sits at 22% as the 2025 defending champion, though wrist injury concerns and limited recent match play temper expectations for a repeat. Alexander Zverev at 7.4% benefits from recent Grand Slam final appearances but trails Sinner’s results head-to-head this season. Novak Djokovic at 3.8% reflects his veteran experience and past hard-court success, yet age and current form place him further back. The remaining contenders, including Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, occupy single-digit probabilities consistent with their strong but secondary results in major draws and recent tournaments. Market pricing captures these performance gaps and injury variables ahead of the late-August draw.