Alofoke’s July 2026 announcement that he would reject overtures from the PRSC and more than a dozen other groups to launch an independent party instead has anchored trader consensus around the current 71% market-implied odds for Yes. The August formal deposit of “Dominicanos Primero” with the JCE and subsequent signature-collection drives across the country, including well-attended events in Santiago, have reinforced momentum by demonstrating concrete progress toward the roughly 80,000 signatures and organizational steps required for recognition. His established digital platform and “Generación Alofoke” following provide a ready base for mobilization, while the June 2027 cutoff leaves ample runway before the 2028 electoral calendar. Remaining hurdles center on the pace of JCE validation and any regulatory delays typical of new-party filings.