A strengthening super El Niño dominates trader focus for the first measurable snowfall of the 2026-27 season, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures at +1.8°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event persisting through winter. This pattern typically shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, favoring warmer and drier conditions across the northern United States and Canada while increasing precipitation chances farther south, which can delay or advance first-snow thresholds depending on elevation and latitude. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño winters show variable early-season outcomes, with some high-elevation sites in the Rockies seeing earlier flakes and northern plains or Northeast cities trending later. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on September 10 and updated NOAA fall outlooks will provide fresh model consensus on temperature and precipitation anomalies that directly inform resolution timing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
52%

Denver, CO by October 31
72%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
54%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
40%

Boston, MA by November 15
32%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
84%

Chicago, IL by November 15
70%

Denver, CO by November 15
89%

Detroit, MI by November 15
72%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
66%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
30%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
85%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
72%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
91%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
73%

Dallas, TX by November 30
10%

Denver, CO by November 30
91%

Detroit, MI by November 30
73%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
85%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
71%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
92%

Nashville, TN by November 30
38%

New York City, NY by November 30
74%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
71%

Washington, DC by November 30
45%
$2,122 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
52%

Denver, CO by October 31
72%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
54%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
40%

Boston, MA by November 15
32%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
84%

Chicago, IL by November 15
70%

Denver, CO by November 15
89%

Detroit, MI by November 15
72%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
66%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
30%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
85%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
72%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
91%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
73%

Dallas, TX by November 30
10%

Denver, CO by November 30
91%

Detroit, MI by November 30
73%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
85%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
71%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
92%

Nashville, TN by November 30
38%

New York City, NY by November 30
74%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
72%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
71%

Washington, DC by November 30
45%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A strengthening super El Niño dominates trader focus for the first measurable snowfall of the 2026-27 season, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures at +1.8°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event persisting through winter. This pattern typically shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, favoring warmer and drier conditions across the northern United States and Canada while increasing precipitation chances farther south, which can delay or advance first-snow thresholds depending on elevation and latitude. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño winters show variable early-season outcomes, with some high-elevation sites in the Rockies seeing earlier flakes and northern plains or Northeast cities trending later. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on September 10 and updated NOAA fall outlooks will provide fresh model consensus on temperature and precipitation anomalies that directly inform resolution timing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড

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