The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, has produced exceptionally tight polling that explains the elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins and the dominant "Other" outcome. Recent surveys from Maskína and Gallup show Yes and No separated by just 2–3 points or statistically tied among decided voters, with fisheries rights, currency stability, and Arctic security concerns as the dominant campaign themes. A Yes result would authorize renewed talks but trigger a second referendum on any final treaty, amplifying uncertainty around exact margins while underscoring Iceland's EEA status and prior suspension of negotiations in 2013. Geopolitical factors, including U.S. tariff policies and Greenland-related developments, accelerated the vote from its original 2027 timeline, yet the evenly divided electorate leaves room for late swings driven by turnout or last-minute economic arguments. Trader consensus thus assigns the highest implied probabilities to sub-6% or 6–12% spreads alongside substantial weight on unresolved or outlier scenarios.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo <3% 42%
Yes <3% 25%
No 9–12% 23%
No 3–6% 22%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
4%
Yes 12–15%
10%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
17%
Yes 3–6%
19%
Yes <3%
25%
No <3%
30%
No 3–6%
22%
No 6–9%
17%
No 9–12%
23%
No 12–15%
18%
No 15%+
16%
No <3% 42%
Yes <3% 25%
No 9–12% 23%
No 3–6% 22%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Yes 12–15%
$106 Vol.
10%
Yes 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 Vol.
17%
Yes 3–6%
$47 Vol.
19%
Yes <3%
$44 Vol.
25%
No <3%
$43 Vol.
30%
No 3–6%
$24 Vol.
22%
No 6–9%
$24 Vol.
17%
No 9–12%
$22 Vol.
23%
No 12–15%
$86 Vol.
18%
No 15%+
$16 Vol.
16%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, has produced exceptionally tight polling that explains the elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins and the dominant "Other" outcome. Recent surveys from Maskína and Gallup show Yes and No separated by just 2–3 points or statistically tied among decided voters, with fisheries rights, currency stability, and Arctic security concerns as the dominant campaign themes. A Yes result would authorize renewed talks but trigger a second referendum on any final treaty, amplifying uncertainty around exact margins while underscoring Iceland's EEA status and prior suspension of negotiations in 2013. Geopolitical factors, including U.S. tariff policies and Greenland-related developments, accelerated the vote from its original 2027 timeline, yet the evenly divided electorate leaves room for late swings driven by turnout or last-minute economic arguments. Trader consensus thus assigns the highest implied probabilities to sub-6% or 6–12% spreads alongside substantial weight on unresolved or outlier scenarios.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
ভলিউম
$553শেষ তারিখ
Aug 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, has produced exceptionally tight polling that explains the elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins and the dominant "Other" outcome. Recent surveys from Maskína and Gallup show Yes and No separated by just 2–3 points or statistically tied among decided voters, with fisheries rights, currency stability, and Arctic security concerns as the dominant campaign themes. A Yes result would authorize renewed talks but trigger a second referendum on any final treaty, amplifying uncertainty around exact margins while underscoring Iceland's EEA status and prior suspension of negotiations in 2013. Geopolitical factors, including U.S. tariff policies and Greenland-related developments, accelerated the vote from its original 2027 timeline, yet the evenly divided electorate leaves room for late swings driven by turnout or last-minute economic arguments. Trader consensus thus assigns the highest implied probabilities to sub-6% or 6–12% spreads alongside substantial weight on unresolved or outlier scenarios.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
ভলিউম
$553শেষ তারিখ
Aug 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, has produced exceptionally tight polling that explains the elevated probabilities on narrow victory margins and the dominant "Other" outcome. Recent surveys from Maskína and Gallup show Yes and No separated by just 2–3 points or statistically tied among decided voters, with fisheries rights, currency stability, and Arctic security concerns as the dominant campaign themes. A Yes result would authorize renewed talks but trigger a second referendum on any final treaty, amplifying uncertainty around exact margins while underscoring Iceland's EEA status and prior suspension of negotiations in 2013. Geopolitical factors, including U.S. tariff policies and Greenland-related developments, accelerated the vote from its original 2027 timeline, yet the evenly divided electorate leaves room for late swings driven by turnout or last-minute economic arguments. Trader consensus thus assigns the highest implied probabilities to sub-6% or 6–12% spreads alongside substantial weight on unresolved or outlier scenarios.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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