Baylor enters the 2026 Big 12 season under head coach Dave Aranda, whose seat remains among the hottest after multiple sub-.500 campaigns and defensive rankings consistently near the bottom of the conference. A rebuilt defensive line and new coordinator Joe Klanderman aim to address chronic issues that contributed to last year’s disappointing finish, while the offense returns experienced talent including quarterback depth and a productive rushing attack. The non-conference slate offers winnable early games against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech before a challenging road test at Auburn and a conference schedule featuring several projected toss-ups. Recent roster additions and an experienced overall group have fueled modest optimism for improvement, though consensus projections cluster near six wins and traders price the over/under line accordingly. Schedule difficulty, defensive scheme implementation, and quarterback consistency will shape whether the Bears surpass or fall short of that benchmark.