**Primetime’s opening weekend sits in a tight contest between the $19–22 million and $22 million-plus brackets because early tracking for the A24 true-crime drama remains modest while Robert Pattinson’s name and the film’s Venice premiere generate enough interest to push toward the higher end.** The September 25 wide release faces direct competition from Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast and family animation Forgotten Island, limiting mainstream appeal for a story centered on the origins of To Catch a Predator. Mixed post-Venice reviews and A24’s typical platforming strategy point to a contained debut in the high teens to low twenties, with final numbers hinging on Friday previews, word-of-mouth, and whether critics’ praise for Pattinson’s performance drives specialty audiences. The market’s near-even split reflects uncertainty over how much the star and topical hook can overcome the subject matter’s narrower draw.