Brazil’s elite squad depth, five-time World Cup pedigree, and status as the clear group favorite underpin the 72.5% implied probability, reinforced by strong recent form under Carlo Ancelotti and favorable early scheduling against Morocco. Morocco’s 18.5% reflects its proven counterattacking strength and 2022 semifinal run, positioning it as the most credible challenger despite a transitional phase. Scotland’s 7.6% accounts for its improved qualification campaign and physical style that could yield points against Haiti, while Haiti’s 0.9% aligns with its lower FIFA ranking and limited recent competitive exposure. No major injuries or lineup shifts have altered this hierarchy in recent days.