Sep 14, 2026
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See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours

Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?


Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?


Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?

Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?


Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?

Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?


Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?

Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
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Breaking news
Sen. Chuck Schumer calls for an immediate classified briefing for all senators on AI risks, saying “warning bells are ringing louder than they ever have.”
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U.S. military publicly acknowledges for the first time that it has deployed space weapons in orbit.
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Trump declares fears of AI taking over the world & destroying humanity are a “HOAX.”
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Researchers develop a video game that helps reveal how autistic people process sensory information, including those who are nonverbal.
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JD Vance accuses the Biden administration of knowing widespread federal loan fraud was taking place, calling it “an open secret.”
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Treasury Sec. Bessent declares the Clarity Act is “essential” to winning the global technology race.
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Trump declares “Sleepy Joe Biden” caused America’s price increases, assuring oil will plunge once the Iran conflict ends.
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DOJ announces a summer crackdown uncovered roughly $245 million in attempted fraud tied to COVID relief programs, charging nearly 80 people.
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Amazon, Netflix, & YouTube form a new alliance to advocate for greater consumer choice in streaming & online content.
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Trump reveals the U.S. is producing “more exquisite & elite weapons than at any point in our history,” with factories running 24/7.
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EU moves to restrict access to social media & AI “companions” for children under 15.
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Sam Altman declares Trump & Xi Jinping could jointly win the Nobel Peace Prize if the U.S. & China agree on shared AI safety standards & testing.

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Clarity Act odds surge ahead of Tuesday’s Senate vote, after GOP released a final draft incorporating 126 Democratic-requested changes. 28% chance.

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Vice President JD Vance warns that AI companies asking the government to regulate them feels like “a bit of a trojan horse.”
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22 states sue the Trump administration to block a new “public charge” rule that could block immigrants who use public benefits from obtaining green cards.
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Trump reveals Iran wants to make a deal “quickly and badly.”
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Experts warn Russia & Ukraine could begin “mass deployment” of fully autonomous AI-powered weapons within the next 6–12 months.
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Novo Nordisk rebrands as “Novo” & unveils a company-wide cultural reset amid intensifying competition in obesity drugs.
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Canada enters the global AI regulation debate, as PM Mark Carney calls for a global “technology stability” body to oversee AI development.
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Macklemore is dropped from the remainder of Ed Sheeran’s U.S. stadium tour following his “Free Palestine” statements.
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Saudi Energy Minister announces the kingdom will pursue nuclear development with international oversight.
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Trump administration urges U.S. workers to report “anti-American discrimination” involving employers favoring foreign visa holders.
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Trump declares the only guardrails AI needs is a “high IQ president,” accusing AI critics of trying to slow America’s lead over China.

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Microsoft unveils new limits for future AI models, including bans on autonomous goal setting, concealed reasoning, & assistance with weapons or dangerous substances.
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Hyundai Steel announces a $5,800,000,000.00 steel plant in Louisiana expected to create 5,400 jobs, beginning production in 2029.
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China imposes a no-fly zone and tighter drone restrictions over Beijing after a small aircraft crashed into the city’s tallest skyscraper.
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10-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to 4.99%, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.
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Bernie Sanders & Steve Bannon will join forces at a “Pro-Human” AI event pushing to keep AI under human control.

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Nvidia, Palantir, & more are reportedly restricting use of Anthropic models over sensitive data exposure.
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Oracle starts another round of layoffs after its workforce already plunged by 21,000 in the last fiscal year.
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China rejects calls from U.S. tech leaders to slow AI development, blasting the warnings as “fearmongering.”
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Scotland, Wales, & Northern Ireland sign a pact backing independence from the UK, declaring “the future of our nations belongs in the European Union.”
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Denmark’s prime minister declares she is “quite optimistic” about finding a peaceful way forward with the U.S. over Greenland.
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Trump reveals he uses AI “for a lot of things.”
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England to ban deep-fried food from school meals under new nutrition rules taking effect in 2027.
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0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
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U.S. House schedules a Tuesday vote on the bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act, which would require tech companies to shoulder infrastructure costs tied to new data centers.
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Prime Minister Andy Burnham declares the UK needs a “culture shift” to reward risk-taking & make it easier to start & grow businesses.
New polymarket
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week?
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NATO allies reportedly foiled a Russian Arctic operation testing technology designed to disable critical undersea cables.
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China’s top intelligence official warns rapid AI advances could threaten political stability & national security through “cognitive warfare.”
New polymarket
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?
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Starlink begins rolling out across Southwest Airlines’ fleet, with more than 300 aircraft expected to be equipped by the end of 2026.
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Chinese crypto billionaire Justin Sun accused of paying a $4.5 million “bride fee” to marry actress Jing Tian, then trying to claw it back after the relationship collapsed.

Breaking news
Democrats projected to achieve a “Blue Wave” in the November midterms. 79% chance.
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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella calls for “deliberate pacing” of advanced AI to keep it aligned & under human control.
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Clavicular storms the Church of Scientology in Los Angeles & is promptly removed from the premises.
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Bernie Sanders reintroduces legislation to establish a 32-hour standard workweek with no loss in pay or benefits.
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SpaceX completes the 700th Falcon rocket mission in company history, launching 3 telecom satellites into orbit from Florida.
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Iran is reportedly facing growing gasoline shortages, rising unemployment, & soaring inflation amid the U.S. “Operation Economic Outcast” campaign.
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Anthropic reportedly tells shareholders it will remain profitable for a second straight quarter, with gross margins above 80%.
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Canada’s Carney to host more than 100 global investors overseeing $72+ trillion in assets this week, as he seeks to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S.
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AI safety pioneer Eliezer Yudkowsky declares there are “zero things more important” than bipartisan action to regulate AI.
Breaking news
King Charles III to convene leaders from Nvidia, Google, DeepMind, OpenAI, & Anthropic in Scotland this week amid growing calls to slow AI development.

Breaking news
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says “for too long the industry lied” about AI risks.
Breaking news
Rep. Jasmine Crockett honors Chris Brown by formally recognizing his career and impact in the Congressional Record.

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Two metro Atlanta officers fired after an audit flagged separate cases of “misuse” involving Flock cameras.
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Oman postpones a planned meeting between Iran & Gulf nations on creating a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Clavicular reveals he is setting out on “a divine path,” seeking to move beyond looksmaxxing content & make a real impact in the world.
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NATO scrambles a fighter jet over Lithuania after a suspected drone sighting, but authorities later determine it was a flock of birds.
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Solana projected to reclaim $120 by end of year — 54% chance.
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President Trump rejects mounting warnings over advanced AI, saying critics are “bringing up things that won’t happen.”
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Trump announces he is lifting U.S. tariffs on Irish whiskey, effectively immediately.
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Tom Holland officially becomes the highest-grossing actor of all time, with his films surpassing $15.5 billion at the global box office.

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Roblox’s top 10 creators have reportedly amassed $657 million in earnings.
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Chinese billionaire Xu Bo is revealed to have fathered 100–300 children through American surrogates, granting them U.S. citizenship at birth.
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Charlie Kirk memorial statue outside TPUSA’s Arizona headquarters was vandalized with red paint overnight.
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Actor Zachary Levi calls California a failed state that is “literally and figuratively on fire” after leaving for Texas.
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Wendy’s locations in Oklahoma bring back the previously discontinued 9-patty “T-Rex” burger, challenging customers to devour the 3,000-calorie meal in just 9 minutes.

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Apple projected to release a touchscreen MacBook by end of year, following its release of the foldable iPhone. 55% chance.
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Mississippi ranks as America’s least vaccinated state, while Massachusetts ranks No. 1 in a new study.
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Trump declares putting Ireland & Northern Ireland together “would seem to me one of the naturals of all time.”

Breaking news
For the first time since satellite records began in 1966, no Atlantic hurricane has formed by Sept. 12.