**Traders assign a 73% probability to "No" on António Guterres leaving office by December 31, 2026, reflecting the established schedule for the end of his second five-year term and the absence of any confirmed early departure.** The UN Secretary-General selection process, formally launched in late 2025, is advancing through Security Council straw polls and candidate dialogues, with eight nominees under consideration and a recommendation expected later in 2026. Guterres has publicly discussed his departure at year-end, participated in the September 2026 General Assembly session as the incumbent, and shown no signs of resignation or removal. Reports indicate some P5 divisions over the successor and resistance to any interim extension, reinforcing the expectation of a standard transition on January 1, 2027. No recent official actions, health developments, or political pressures have altered this timeline. The implied probability aligns with the predictable institutional calendar and lack of disruptive catalysts in the final months of the term.