Traders assign a 97.7% probability that Eileen Gu’s U.S. citizenship will not be officially rescinded by the December 31, 2026 resolution date because no revocation proceedings, legislative changes, or administrative actions have targeted her status. U.S. law permits dual nationality and limits involuntary loss of citizenship to narrow grounds such as fraud in naturalization or certain criminal convictions, none of which apply here. Gu, born in San Francisco, acquired Chinese citizenship around 2019 to compete for China in the Olympics while continuing to reside and study in the United States without reported interference from U.S. authorities. Public criticism and calls for revocation have not translated into government policy or enforcement. The near-certain trader consensus aligns with this stable legal and political environment; a shift would require new legislation or an unprecedented enforcement action within the remaining timeframe.