Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Gemini 3.2 release around May 19 at 39% implied probability, closely trailed by no release by May 31 at 30.5%, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini iOS app build spotted May 5 and brief app availability for select users. These developments signal Google's push for multimodal AI upgrades ahead of its I/O developer conference on May 19-20, where next-gen large language model announcements are traditionally unveiled, intensifying competition with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models on reasoning benchmarks and context windows. Absent official confirmation, uncertainty persists around exact timelines, with historical I/O patterns favoring mid-May launches but potential delays from safety testing or integration hurdles keeping the "No by May 31" outcome viable. Key swing factors include pre-I/O teasers or API changelog updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 19 38%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 13%
May 14 13%
NEU
$33,750 Vol.
NEU
$33,750 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
1%
May 11
3%
May 12
13%
May 13
13%
May 14
13%
May 15
3%
May 16
1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
38%
May 20
6%
May 21
4%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
4%
May 28
<1%
May 29
3%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
25%
May 19 38%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 13%
May 14 13%
NEU
$33,750 Vol.
NEU
$33,750 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
On or prior to May 6
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
May 7
$553 Vol.
1%
May 8
$499 Vol.
<1%
May 9
$2,773 Vol.
1%
May 10
$2,853 Vol.
1%
May 11
$554 Vol.
3%
May 12
$558 Vol.
13%
May 13
$584 Vol.
13%
May 14
$526 Vol.
13%
May 15
$514 Vol.
3%
May 16
$2,601 Vol.
1%
May 17
$2,613 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$546 Vol.
4%
May 19
$864 Vol.
38%
May 20
$652 Vol.
6%
May 21
$586 Vol.
4%
May 22
$566 Vol.
2%
May 23
$2,581 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Vol.
1%
May 25
$596 Vol.
3%
May 26
$601 Vol.
1%
May 27
$586 Vol.
4%
May 28
$586 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$611 Vol.
3%
May 30
$2,890 Vol.
1%
May 31
$2,757 Vol.
1%
No release by May 31
$671 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Gemini 3.2 release around May 19 at 39% implied probability, closely trailed by no release by May 31 at 30.5%, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini iOS app build spotted May 5 and brief app availability for select users. These developments signal Google's push for multimodal AI upgrades ahead of its I/O developer conference on May 19-20, where next-gen large language model announcements are traditionally unveiled, intensifying competition with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models on reasoning benchmarks and context windows. Absent official confirmation, uncertainty persists around exact timelines, with historical I/O patterns favoring mid-May launches but potential delays from safety testing or integration hurdles keeping the "No by May 31" outcome viable. Key swing factors include pre-I/O teasers or API changelog updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$33,750Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Gemini 3.2 release around May 19 at 39% implied probability, closely trailed by no release by May 31 at 30.5%, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini iOS app build spotted May 5 and brief app availability for select users. These developments signal Google's push for multimodal AI upgrades ahead of its I/O developer conference on May 19-20, where next-gen large language model announcements are traditionally unveiled, intensifying competition with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models on reasoning benchmarks and context windows. Absent official confirmation, uncertainty persists around exact timelines, with historical I/O patterns favoring mid-May launches but potential delays from safety testing or integration hurdles keeping the "No by May 31" outcome viable. Key swing factors include pre-I/O teasers or API changelog updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$33,750Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Gemini 3.2 release around May 19 at 39% implied probability, closely trailed by no release by May 31 at 30.5%, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini iOS app build spotted May 5 and brief app availability for select users. These developments signal Google's push for multimodal AI upgrades ahead of its I/O developer conference on May 19-20, where next-gen large language model announcements are traditionally unveiled, intensifying competition with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models on reasoning benchmarks and context windows. Absent official confirmation, uncertainty persists around exact timelines, with historical I/O patterns favoring mid-May launches but potential delays from safety testing or integration hurdles keeping the "No by May 31" outcome viable. Key swing factors include pre-I/O teasers or API changelog updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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