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Technik·AI

Grok 4.4 released by...?

icon for Grok 4.4 released by...?
Technik·AI

Grok 4.4 released by...?

NEU
30. Juni 2026
Polymarket

$62 Vol.

Polymarket

May 31

$20 Vol.

19%

June 15

$2 Vol.

39%

June 30

$40 Vol.

77%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series, with reports indicating Grok 4.4 is slated for release in the coming weeks as a roughly 1-trillion-parameter upgrade trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. This follows Grok 4’s July 2025 launch and subsequent point releases like 4.20 earlier in 2026, reflecting xAI’s focus on scaling compute and capabilities ahead of Grok 5 targets at multi-trillion parameters. Competitive pressure from frontier labs and internal multi-model training pipelines are accelerating timelines, though exact release criteria for market resolution hinge on official availability through the API or X platform rather than previews or leaks. Traders are watching for announcements tied to benchmark improvements or new agentic features.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$62
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language model series, with reports indicating Grok 4.4 is slated for release in the coming weeks as a roughly 1-trillion-parameter upgrade trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. This follows Grok 4’s July 2025 launch and subsequent point releases like 4.20 earlier in 2026, reflecting xAI’s focus on scaling compute and capabilities ahead of Grok 5 targets at multi-trillion parameters. Competitive pressure from frontier labs and internal multi-model training pipelines are accelerating timelines, though exact release criteria for market resolution hinge on official availability through the API or X platform rather than previews or leaks. Traders are watching for announcements tied to benchmark improvements or new agentic features.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$62
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Grok 4.4 released by...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „June 30" mit 77%, gefolgt von „June 15" mit 39%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 77¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Grok 4.4 released by...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am May 22, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Grok 4.4 released by...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 3 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Grok 4.4 released by...?" ist „June 30" mit 77%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 77% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „June 15" mit 39%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Grok 4.4 released by...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.