**Trader consensus at 98.8% "No" reflects the contained, ship-specific nature of the only recent hantavirus activity and the low baseline incidence of significant outbreaks.** The sole notable event was a May 2026 cluster of 13 Andes virus cases (including 3 deaths) aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, all among passengers or crew with no confirmed community transmission or secondary spread beyond close-contact exposures. Official sources (CDC, WHO, ECDC) assessed the general public risk as very low, with extensive monitoring of exposed individuals showing no new U.S. cases by mid-June and many 42-day observation windows already closing without incident. Andes virus, while capable of limited person-to-person spread, requires prolonged close contact and has not triggered broader outbreaks here. Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases in the U.S. remain sporadic and low-volume year-round, typically tied to rodent exposure rather than sustained transmission chains. With only two weeks until the June 30 resolution and no active surveillance signals of escalation, the market-implied odds align with the absence of conditions for a qualifying outbreak. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include detection of additional cases among monitored contacts (incubation can reach 6 weeks) or an unrelated cluster emerging in an endemic area before month-end, though both are improbable given current data and historical patterns.