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icon for Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?
Economy·NFP

Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?

icon for Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?
Economy·NFP

Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?

$472,084 Vol.

10. Jan. 2026
Polymarket

$472,084 Vol.

Polymarket

5,0 %

$121,954 Vol.

10%

5,5 %

$199,375 Vol.

6%

6,0 %

$74,370 Vol.

8%

7,0 %

$29,723 Vol.

7%

10,0 %

$46,663 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data through June 2026 show the unemployment rate holding near 4.2 percent, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and low initial claims despite a contracting labor force. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent, prioritizing inflation control above its 2 percent goal amid tariff-related price pressures rather than easing to bolster employment. Baseline projections from the FOMC and private forecasters anticipate GDP growth near potential, with the unemployment rate rising modestly toward 4.5-4.6 percent by year-end. Traders are focused on the upcoming August employment report, July CPI release, and September FOMC meeting as potential catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution for the 2026 peak.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$472,084
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data through June 2026 show the unemployment rate holding near 4.2 percent, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and low initial claims despite a contracting labor force. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent, prioritizing inflation control above its 2 percent goal amid tariff-related price pressures rather than easing to bolster employment. Baseline projections from the FOMC and private forecasters anticipate GDP growth near potential, with the unemployment rate rising modestly toward 4.5-4.6 percent by year-end. Traders are focused on the upcoming August employment report, July CPI release, and September FOMC meeting as potential catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution for the 2026 peak.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$472,084
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Verwandte

icon for Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

32%
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Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

55%
icon for Wird die Inflation im Jahr 2026 mehr als 4,5 % erreichen?

Wird die Inflation im Jahr 2026 mehr als 4,5 % erreichen?

24%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „5,0 %" mit 10%, gefolgt von „6,0 %" mit 8%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 10¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 10% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $472.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 2, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?" ist „5,0 %" mit 10%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 10% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „6,0 %" mit 8%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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