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icon for Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?
Economy·NFP

Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?

icon for Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?
Economy·NFP

Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?

$484,304 Vol.

31. Jan. 2027
Polymarket

$484,304 Vol.

Polymarket

5,0 %

$123,619 Vol.

11%

5,5 %

$201,076 Vol.

5%

6,0 %

$76,306 Vol.

7%

7,0 %

$32,257 Vol.

5%

10,0 %

$51,046 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 amid slowing hiring in retail and local government. The decline in the headline rate reflects a shrinking labor force, with participation falling to 61.4% and the employment-population ratio at 58.9%, rather than broad strength. The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds target at 3.5–3.75% while viewing conditions as near full employment, consistent with its June median projection of 4.3% for 2026. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report on September 4 and the next FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation above target and any further payroll weakness could influence rate expectations and labor demand through year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$484,304
Enddatum
1. Feb. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% in July 2026 from 4.2% in June, even as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 amid slowing hiring in retail and local government. The decline in the headline rate reflects a shrinking labor force, with participation falling to 61.4% and the employment-population ratio at 58.9%, rather than broad strength. The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds target at 3.5–3.75% while viewing conditions as near full employment, consistent with its June median projection of 4.3% for 2026. Key upcoming releases include the August employment report on September 4 and the next FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation above target and any further payroll weakness could influence rate expectations and labor demand through year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$484,304
Enddatum
1. Feb. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Verwandte

icon for Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

32%
icon for Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

62%
icon for Wird die Inflation im Jahr 2026 mehr als 4,5 % erreichen?

Wird die Inflation im Jahr 2026 mehr als 4,5 % erreichen?

13%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „5,0 %" mit 11%, gefolgt von „6,0 %" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 11¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie hoch wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 sein?" ist „5,0 %" mit 11%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „6,0 %" mit 7%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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