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Politik·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Market icon
Politik·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

29% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
29% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$315
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$315
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

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