Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 18–31 seats, with most surveys clustering around 20–23, compared with the 32 seats it secured in 2022. This decline reflects sustained voter dissatisfaction tied to the protracted conflicts since 2023, coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and the emergence of competing right-leaning lists such as Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu’s broader bloc averages near 53 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold—while the opposing Zionist parties also fall short in most aggregates. The consistent gap between current projections and Likud’s prior result underpins trader consensus on a seat loss, though final outcomes remain sensitive to turnout, late alliances, and surplus-vote agreements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert92% Chance
$18,444 Vol.
$18,444 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
92% Chance
$18,444 Vol.
$18,444 Vol.
27. Okt. 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 18–31 seats, with most surveys clustering around 20–23, compared with the 32 seats it secured in 2022. This decline reflects sustained voter dissatisfaction tied to the protracted conflicts since 2023, coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and the emergence of competing right-leaning lists such as Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu’s broader bloc averages near 53 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold—while the opposing Zionist parties also fall short in most aggregates. The consistent gap between current projections and Likud’s prior result underpins trader consensus on a seat loss, though final outcomes remain sensitive to turnout, late alliances, and surplus-vote agreements.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$18,444Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 18–31 seats, with most surveys clustering around 20–23, compared with the 32 seats it secured in 2022. This decline reflects sustained voter dissatisfaction tied to the protracted conflicts since 2023, coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and the emergence of competing right-leaning lists such as Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu’s broader bloc averages near 53 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold—while the opposing Zionist parties also fall short in most aggregates. The consistent gap between current projections and Likud’s prior result underpins trader consensus on a seat loss, though final outcomes remain sensitive to turnout, late alliances, and surplus-vote agreements.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$18,444Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 18–31 seats, with most surveys clustering around 20–23, compared with the 32 seats it secured in 2022. This decline reflects sustained voter dissatisfaction tied to the protracted conflicts since 2023, coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and the emergence of competing right-leaning lists such as Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu’s broader bloc averages near 53 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold—while the opposing Zionist parties also fall short in most aggregates. The consistent gap between current projections and Likud’s prior result underpins trader consensus on a seat loss, though final outcomes remain sensitive to turnout, late alliances, and surplus-vote agreements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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