Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6500-7000 US flight delays on March 24 at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting seasonal spring weather volatility across key hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York, where forecasts show potential thunderstorms and wind shear boosting delay risks above historical averages of 5000-6000 daily. Lower bins like 5000-5500 (17%) and 6000-6500 (17.5%) draw support from recent FAA data indicating improved air traffic control staffing and fewer mechanical issues from major carriers. Higher outcomes above 8000 (12%) hinge on escalating disruptions from any unscheduled ground stops or crew shortages. Real-time FlightAware tracking and afternoon weather updates could consolidate odds, as morning delays often signal full-day trends amid 45,000+ scheduled departures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert6500-7000 30%
5000-5500 19.0%
6000-6500 18%
>8000 16%
$5,247 Vol.
$5,247 Vol.
<5000
10%
5000-5500
32%
5500-6000
13%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
30%
7000-7500
8%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
18%
6500-7000 30%
5000-5500 19.0%
6000-6500 18%
>8000 16%
$5,247 Vol.
$5,247 Vol.
<5000
10%
5000-5500
32%
5500-6000
13%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
30%
7000-7500
8%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
18%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6500-7000 US flight delays on March 24 at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting seasonal spring weather volatility across key hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York, where forecasts show potential thunderstorms and wind shear boosting delay risks above historical averages of 5000-6000 daily. Lower bins like 5000-5500 (17%) and 6000-6500 (17.5%) draw support from recent FAA data indicating improved air traffic control staffing and fewer mechanical issues from major carriers. Higher outcomes above 8000 (12%) hinge on escalating disruptions from any unscheduled ground stops or crew shortages. Real-time FlightAware tracking and afternoon weather updates could consolidate odds, as morning delays often signal full-day trends amid 45,000+ scheduled departures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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