The NFL's June 2026 decision not to hold a supplemental draft directly shapes the 94% implied probability for "No." League officials cited sole CBA discretion, noting no plans existed prior to the lone application from Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby, whose gambling-related NCAA ineligibility raised core integrity concerns that could not be reviewed adequately before training camp. No other prospects applied, continuing a pattern where the event has not occurred since 2023 and produced no selections since the Cardinals took Jalen Thompson in 2019. With the regular draft long concluded and no late eligibility shifts reported, traders view additional developments capable of reversing the outcome as highly unlikely.