The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, setting up oral arguments for the October term and a likely decision by mid-2027. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has repeatedly broadened Second Amendment protections under the Bruen historical-tradition test, several justices—including Kavanaugh—have already signaled that AR-15-style rifles appear to qualify as arms “in common use” by law-abiding citizens. Lower-court upholdings of the bans and public-safety arguments tied to mass shootings create meaningful counter-pressure, keeping the market’s implied probability for invalidation near even at 55.5 percent. No major intervening developments have shifted the posture since the grant.