Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the fragile truce reached in late 2025 continue to shape expectations for tariff levels by December 31, 2026. The agreement suspended heightened reciprocal duties through November 10, 2026, with current effective rates on Chinese goods averaging roughly 23–36 percent after July 2026 Section 301 actions tied to forced labor concerns. Preparatory discussions ahead of the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have included proposals to reduce tariffs to most-favored-nation levels on up to $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, while a separate excess-capacity investigation remains unresolved. Traders see the 25–35 percent range as most probable because any extension or modest adjustment of the truce would likely keep rates in that band, yet the spread across lower and higher buckets reflects uncertainty over whether further cuts, new duties, or a post-November reset will occur before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert25–35 % 28%
5–15 % 27%
15–25 % 25%
<5 % 21%
NEU
NEU
30. Dez. 2026
<5 %
21%
5–15 %
27%
15–25 %
25%
25–35 %
28%
35 %+
13%
25–35 % 28%
5–15 % 27%
15–25 % 25%
<5 % 21%
NEU
NEU
30. Dez. 2026
<5 %
$146 Vol.
21%
5–15 %
$0 Vol.
27%
15–25 %
$0 Vol.
25%
25–35 %
$0 Vol.
28%
35 %+
$145 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the fragile truce reached in late 2025 continue to shape expectations for tariff levels by December 31, 2026. The agreement suspended heightened reciprocal duties through November 10, 2026, with current effective rates on Chinese goods averaging roughly 23–36 percent after July 2026 Section 301 actions tied to forced labor concerns. Preparatory discussions ahead of the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have included proposals to reduce tariffs to most-favored-nation levels on up to $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, while a separate excess-capacity investigation remains unresolved. Traders see the 25–35 percent range as most probable because any extension or modest adjustment of the truce would likely keep rates in that band, yet the spread across lower and higher buckets reflects uncertainty over whether further cuts, new duties, or a post-November reset will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volumen
$291Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the fragile truce reached in late 2025 continue to shape expectations for tariff levels by December 31, 2026. The agreement suspended heightened reciprocal duties through November 10, 2026, with current effective rates on Chinese goods averaging roughly 23–36 percent after July 2026 Section 301 actions tied to forced labor concerns. Preparatory discussions ahead of the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have included proposals to reduce tariffs to most-favored-nation levels on up to $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, while a separate excess-capacity investigation remains unresolved. Traders see the 25–35 percent range as most probable because any extension or modest adjustment of the truce would likely keep rates in that band, yet the spread across lower and higher buckets reflects uncertainty over whether further cuts, new duties, or a post-November reset will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$291Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the fragile truce reached in late 2025 continue to shape expectations for tariff levels by December 31, 2026. The agreement suspended heightened reciprocal duties through November 10, 2026, with current effective rates on Chinese goods averaging roughly 23–36 percent after July 2026 Section 301 actions tied to forced labor concerns. Preparatory discussions ahead of the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi have included proposals to reduce tariffs to most-favored-nation levels on up to $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, while a separate excess-capacity investigation remains unresolved. Traders see the 25–35 percent range as most probable because any extension or modest adjustment of the truce would likely keep rates in that band, yet the spread across lower and higher buckets reflects uncertainty over whether further cuts, new duties, or a post-November reset will occur before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen