Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 51-55 percent range, after a series of surveys in July and August. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while One Nation’s support has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s percent, fragmenting the right-of-centre vote. These trends, combined with the Coalition’s stronger position on key battlegrounds and the three-month campaign window, underpin trader consensus favoring a Liberal-National outcome. Minor parties and independents continue to draw substantial primary support but face structural barriers to forming government under Victoria’s preferential voting system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria
Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
NEU
NEU
28. Nov. 2026
Liberal–National
63%
Labor
18%
One Nation
10%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
NEU
NEU
28. Nov. 2026
Liberal–National
$1,631 Vol.
63%
Labor
$341 Vol.
18%
One Nation
$72 Vol.
10%
Greens
$119 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 51-55 percent range, after a series of surveys in July and August. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while One Nation’s support has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s percent, fragmenting the right-of-centre vote. These trends, combined with the Coalition’s stronger position on key battlegrounds and the three-month campaign window, underpin trader consensus favoring a Liberal-National outcome. Minor parties and independents continue to draw substantial primary support but face structural barriers to forming government under Victoria’s preferential voting system.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volumen
$2,161Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 51-55 percent range, after a series of surveys in July and August. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while One Nation’s support has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s percent, fragmenting the right-of-centre vote. These trends, combined with the Coalition’s stronger position on key battlegrounds and the three-month campaign window, underpin trader consensus favoring a Liberal-National outcome. Minor parties and independents continue to draw substantial primary support but face structural barriers to forming government under Victoria’s preferential voting system.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$2,161Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28, 2026 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically in the 51-55 percent range, after a series of surveys in July and August. Labor’s primary vote has remained subdued following the late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, while One Nation’s support has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s percent, fragmenting the right-of-centre vote. These trends, combined with the Coalition’s stronger position on key battlegrounds and the three-month campaign window, underpin trader consensus favoring a Liberal-National outcome. Minor parties and independents continue to draw substantial primary support but face structural barriers to forming government under Victoria’s preferential voting system.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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